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Binary Options Webinars, Seminars and Coaching

Binary Options Webinars, Seminars and Coaching submitted by yasinthashanaka455 to u/yasinthashanaka455 [link] [comments]

Binary Options Webinars, Seminars and Coaching

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Binary Options Indicator Coaching Session EUR/USD 8 Wins 1 Loss

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXTMAvoLK2o
submitted by EthanMILL to investing [link] [comments]

It's been 4 Days since my Spouse Came Out as MTF - Here are Some Random Thoughts I've had!

I (cis-f, 33) have been a bit of a hot mess the past week and my mind has been all over the place. Because this is so new (and subject to change), we aren't telling anyone else at the moment, so I don't have a sounding board, so thank you, internet, for giving me an outlet to talk about my feelings thoughts. I am sorry if any of this is triggering. I'm new and still learning what this means.
  1. My spouse told me that it would be easier to buy them a Christmas gift this year (more options!). "Do you want Bath and Body Works Products? - That was like *the* default "girl" gift that I received when people started getting gifts when I was becoming a 'woman'." -- They said that they would be into that.
  2. If we stay together and they go through a full social-transition, I was thinking that it would be exciting to do a renewal of vows, like a small thing with both of us in dresses, with like a small beach ceremony and just super supportive people around us (I know I am WAY ahead of myself).
    1. This was immediately followed by fear about them being "prettier" than me and getting so many compliments and me being the ugly one. I am also really not interested in being masculine in any way and I have this weird insecurity about not being seen as feminine or "good enough" at being a girl.
    2. My spouse is good at a HUGE range of things. They are really remarkable in that regard and I am afraid that the more feminine they express, the more competition I will feel with them and they will beat me because they are going to be better at those things.
  3. "Maybe you should try one of my bras, it's not like *I've* worn one since the beginning of this quarantine." Haha
    1. I am a little insecure that we are similar size width-wise (they are definitely taller) but I've been struggling with my weight, so they can wear some of my dresses, for example, but they may be a little short. I wish I was small enough that we couldn't just interchange clothes so easily, but I guess we could both share double the wardrobe.
    2. It is nice that they can try on clothes that they don't have to buy right away. Definitely cheaper.
  4. My in-laws already hate me for other unrelated reasons and I just *know* that they will blame this situation on me. I am unsure how my parents would respond, but they have definitely expressed low-level homophobia. They are in the "I don't want to see it" camp. I am also fairly certain my mom will believe that this is a "mental health illness" and means that my spouse is a sexual deviant.
    1. This viewpoint scares me because it resonates with my internalized transphobia. That being "born in the wrong body" is an illness or some sick and twisted sexual fetish. If anyone has any ways to combat this initial reaction to this, I would love to know how to de-condition myself. Unfortunately, I associate transgenders as being a bit "weird" and now I'm having cognitive dissonance because I don't want to believe that my spouse is a weird sexual deviant.
    2. I also know that I have a hard time with emotional boundaries and self-doubt, so if someone comes at me with a strong opinion, I have a hard time not letting that get to me. Plus I'm a people-pleaser and I'm sure we will meet with some awful people along this journey.
    3. I'm afraid that this will reflect "poorly" on me and it gives me a sense of shame -- then I feel shame about the shame in a shame-spiral.
    4. If my in-laws disown them, I wonder if my spouse will change their last name. Should I change my last name? Should we pick a whole new name together? -- I do not feel "non-conformist" enough to do this.
  5. It's only been 4 days since they came out to me and they have already just skipped over the non-binary phase. Weirdly my spouse has expressed discomfort in the "in-between" space and has gone right to the feminine.
  6. I was super stressed about the election a week ago and now it is barely on my radar. The nice thing is I can hide my volatile emotions in election-stress, but for how long?
    1. I am like the worst secret-keeper in the world and this is definitely the biggest secret I have ever been asked to keep. I feel like it is written all over my face and I just hate it so much. I do NOT want to out them, but I am so scared I will CRACK under this pressure.
    2. This is interesting in that I have been working on healing an eating disorder. Today my nutritional coach called and asked how I was doing and that was hard for me. I don't want to completely derail my progress or really get into "this" with her, but I'd be lying if I said I haven't eaten/drank irresponsibly during the last week because of my strong emotions.
  7. Will *I* be accepted into the LGBTQ community? What IS my sexuality? I haven't really had to think about it before. Can I be a "real" bisexual/lesbian? Would I ever be viewed that way?
  8. Are we moving too fast? My spouse is like in a dress, one of my padded bras, makeup, and shaved their legs/chest already. They seem so happy. I feel happy that they are happy. I actually feel honored that they feel safe enough with me to explore so fully so quickly. It makes me feel like our marriage is stronger than I thought.
    1. They used some body spray and women's deodorant and now they smell different and that is unexpectedly disorienting for me.
  9. I don't like the rhetoric of "dead" name because I don't want to believe my spouse is "dead" -- their current name is one of those names that is generally used for a boy, but every once in a while is used for a girl (which is weirdly cool and hot and edgy to me). They aren't sure they want to actually change their first name, but I think I need something to call them so I can get more into the space of mentally viewing them the way they are presenting.
  10. I have this weird fear that when people find out they will be more upset about it than me. I haven't cried for example, but I just know someone else will, even though it won't affect them as much as it will affect me. That's weird and gate-keeping, I know, but I just feel like if I can "keep it together" so can they.
    1. I have some issues with emotions/emotional expression (especially sadness) and maybe this triggers me because it sometimes feels like I have "robot" feelings and that if I don't cry/mourn then "I don't care" as much. Believe me. I care. This intimately affects me.
  11. If they go on hormones will their sexuality change? Is that a common thing? If they start on hormones, how would that change their personality? They are one of the most chilled-out, contented, calm people I've ever met, but will hormones make them overly emotional?
  12. When I first thought about my sexuality, I thought/believed that the reason I could never be a lesbian would be 1) I want to be unequivocal 'the girl' and I was afraid of sharing that role and 2) I wouldn't want to deal with the over-emotionality of women. I have believed that I could probably be sexually attracted to women, but would be hesitant to be in a romantic relationship with them because it seems harder to be with a woman (both socially in society) and I am much more aligned with the "receiver" / the one who is cared for rather than the "provider" / the one who cares for the other. <-- I don't even know HOW to do that effectively.
    1. Let me clarify, I care for my spouse but it's generally the emotional care, not the "let me get rid of this spider" type of care. I can hold space for them to explore themselves, but I'm not gonna be able to protect them from a violent predator. I still want them to hold me.
So yeah, that's all pretty random. I'm very "heady" and just think a million-times a minute, so this is just the things that have been standing out to me. Thank you for listening.
submitted by meshsock to mypartneristrans [link] [comments]

My one-year anniversary of Intuitive Eating. TL;DR: Keep going, this fight is worth it!

Minor TW size/weight mentioned.
I’m a frequent poster so likely you’ve already read bits and pieces of this story! But I really want to throw down the whole thing here, just on the off-chance I can inspire one single person to keep going and not give up.
One year ago yesterday, I fell hard and sprained the shit out of my ankle while on a punishment run. I was running a 10km trail to punish myself for the excess calories after my 5-year old daughter’s birthday party; the cherry on top of 20+ years of obsessive dieting and over-exercising. I won’t dive too deep into this, because I know all of you that are here will get it. Food and diet owned my thoughts; my day was determined to be bad or good by whether the scale was up or down in the morning. It was hateful. It ruined some of the best moments of my life - beach vacations, parties, dinners with friends where I couldn’t stop thinking about what I looked like and comparing myself with others relentlessly.
Anyways, I reached a fork in the road on October 28th, 2019, where I was either going to descend fully into a full-blown eating disorder, or I was going to fix this shit once and for all. With two young daughters, I think I finally had the reason I’d needed to escape the self-imposed loathing and hell of dieting.
I came across IE accidentally and connected with the concept instantly. Devoured the books and dove into “eat all the things” mode. Lemme tell ya, this part was messy. I ate allllllll the things. For six whole weeks I ate basically nothing but carbs. Even the sight of vegetables made me gag, after 20 years of force-feeding them to myself. I ate whole meals at 10pm, in order to fully process my restrictive thoughts around “going to bed hungry”. Of course, I gained some weight pretty rapidly, at least 30lbs. I don’t know the actual number because I haven’t weighed myself in a whole fucking year! Omg. That’s wild.
So anyways, after this phase things leveled out into this calm space. I would not have got there without my coach, Courtney Hill, who was there with a truck and a winch every time I fell in a ditch.
I struggled with body image, initially. But it forced me to find some strategies. Buy some new clothes, change my thoughts. And I totally have. I just don’t really care anymore - not in a “letting myself go” way that I always feared was the binary of obsessive dieting. Nah I just roll around now with a new kind of confidence. Sometimes now whole days will go by where I don’t think about my body once. I just focus on rocking my life and being an amazing mom, wife, and manager.
It’s opened up doors for me. I got headhunted by a big company, the cream of the crop in my industry, and I swear I wouldn’t have had the confidence to take it if I hadn’t been well along on this path.
I’m so much more calm and present in my life, with my kids. I picked up meditating which has been critically important in this wild pandemic year. I am happier and calmer and more confident than I’ve ever been.
My body totally leveled out at a size I’m really happy and comfortable with. Will I ever fit into my wedding dress again? Nah. Do I care? Also nah. I bought new clothes that I feel hot and awesome in.
In September, I was finally feeling ready to work out hard again, after a whole year of throwing in the towel. Previously, I’d been an elite athlete and had always exercised obsessively, Crossfitting and running myself into oblivion, ignoring my body’s signals and subjecting myself to one over-use injury after the next. Anyways, I started working out with a personal trainer and absolutely love it. I just smashed a 213lb deadlift yesterday and feel like a fucking beast.
I feel healthy. I’m not constantly sick and bedraggled. My hair, skin, and nails are luscious. I have energy. I sleep.
I almost wish I’d done some more journaling in the “before” times so I could better comprehend the magnitude of this shift. But I’m also content with just leaving it behind forever.
I’ve had a pretty amazing life and have done a lot of incredible things - sailing across oceans, pursuing grad degrees and intense, challenging career options. But I’m proudest of what I’ve done to stomp diet culture to the curb, and, hopefully, break the cycle for my daughters, who will see their mom loving food and being strong and confident and happy.
Keep going, it’s worth it.
submitted by Unknown_Stonefruit to intuitiveeating [link] [comments]

# /r/Peloton Pre-TDF Survey 2020

Gentlemen, Ladies and those otherwise addressed - we know you've been waiting for a good thing, and the survey results are finally ready!
The answers were collected from you all during August 2020 with 1428 unique replies. That's a participation of 0.5% of all subscribers! That's really not too bad, when you keep in mind how popular these kind of surveys are. But we here at /peloton want to show you that this is all about presenting the information in the subreddit to cater better to our audience!
Updated after a few hours to include some more historical data the final edit that for some reason wasn't copied properly
Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2018 Mar 2018 Aug 2019 2020
Results 2013-06-12 2014-06-25 2015-08-07 2016-11-17 2018-03-06 2018-08-20 2019-07-22 2020-10-12
Replies 351 598 1395 892 630 928 986 1428
Without further ado, let's get cracking on the response

You and Cycling

1. Where do you live?

Country 2015 2016 2018 Mar 2018 Aug 2019 2020
USA 32% 28.3% 22.84% 25.32% 20.23% 24.59%
UK 18.6% 17.6% 14.70% 20.13% 15.48% 14.80%
Netherlands 6.4% 9.4% 11.50% 11.58% 10.01% 11.01%
Germany 3.73% 3.4% 4.95% 6.39% 7.84% 6.65%
Denmark 3.9% 3.6% 4.31% 3.79% 7.64% 5.79%
Belgium 3.8% 2.7% 8.15% 3.57% 5.78% 5.36%
France 2.01% 1.08% 2.88% 2.27% 5.26% 3.50%
Canada 4.9% 7% 6.39% 4.22% 4.95% 4.50%
Australia 5.2% 4.7% 3.83% 4.00% 4.33% 3.93%
Slovenia 0.73% 0.32% 1.30% 1.14% 2.14%
Norway 2.58% 1.8% 1.60% 1.95% 2.58% 1.86%
Sweden 1.08% 1.09% 1.44% 1.41% 1.75% 1.43%
Ireland 1.00% 1.09% 1.44% 1.19% 0.72% 1.36%
Portugal 1.65% 1.8% 2.40% 1.52% 1.34% 1.14%
Italy 1.45% 1.44% 0.65% 1.03% 1.07%
Largely the same picture as ever, with the US leading the way, the UK in second and then a sliding scale of Europeans countries. Slovenia continues to pick its way up the pile for obvious reasons!
World Map to demonstrate

2. What's your age?

u17 17-19 20-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-50 51+ Total
2015 2.22% 12.04% 41.51% 24.66% 10.68% 4.87% 2.94% 1.08% 1395
2016 1.5% 8.9% 40.8% 24% 12% 5.4% 5.2% 2% 887
2018 Mar 1% 7.1% 33.5% 27.4% 16.2% 7% 5.7% 2.1% 617
2018 Aug 1.7% 9% 33.9% 26.4% 15.5% 7% 5% 1.5% 905
2019 1.5% 6.6% 33.2% 27.5% 16.4% 7.1% 5.8% 2% 972
2020 1.3% 6.8% 31.7% 28% 16.6% 7.2% 5% 2.5% 1420
Pretty much the same as last year, with the usual reddit demographics of majority 20 somethings dominating.

3. What's your gender?

'13 '14 '15 '16 '18 (1) '18 (2) '19 '20
Male 97.2% 97% 94.9% 93.4% 93.3% 93.6% 95.1% 94.9%
Female 2.8% 2.7% 4.8% 5.3% 5.3% 5.4% 3.7% 4.8%
Other - 0.33% 0.29% 0.78% 0.76% - -
Non-Binary - - - - 0.64% 0.99% 1.2% 0.4%
More normality here for reddit.

4. How much of the men's season do you watch/follow?

Type March '18 (%) August '18 (%) 2019 (%) 2020 (%)
Grand Tours 84.7 92.0 90.2 87.3
Monuments 79.1 74.9 79 75.9
WT Stage races 67.4 62.4 70.5 71.7
WT One day races 73.3 59.8 62.3 60.7
Non WT Stage races 32.6 16.7 17.4 25
Non WT One day races 34.8 13.7 17.4 20.7
Literally everything I can consume 35.9 18.1 21.1 27.1
Whilst GT following may be down (somehow), all the lower level stuff is up, which makes sense considering how desperate we have been for any racing during the season shutdown.

5. Do you maintain an interest in women's professional road racing?

Do you maintain an interest in women's professional road racing? '19 '20
Yes 49.8 49.2
No 50.2 50.8
Still very much a half/half interest in women's cycling on the subreddit.

6. How much of the women's season do you follow?

The following is true for the half of you that follows womens cycling.
How Much %
Just the biggest televised events 63.15%
Most of the live televised/delayed coverage stuff 29.08%
All televised racing 5.09%
Down to .Pro & beyond 2.69%

7. How long have you been watching cycling?

How Long %
Under a year 2,95%
1-3 years 19,50%
4-6 years 19,85%
7-9 years 14,10%
10-12 years 13,81%
13-15 years 7,15%
15-20 years 10,73%
20-25 years 6,17%
25 years + 5,75%
Simplified the years a little this time, but whilst we have a fair number of newbies, most people have picked the sport up since around 2013/14.

Sporting Favourites

8. Do you have like/dislike feelings about WT teams?

Once more, 14.4% of people really don't have feelings on the subject.
Of those that do:
AG2R Astana Bahrain Bora CCC Cofidis Quick-Step EF FDJ
Like 352 213 127 770 156 116 847 724 423
Meh 775 620 773 415 889 896 310 448 700
Dislike 52 356 263 31 112 141 71 37 53
Karma 300 -143 -70 739 44 -25 776 677 370
Israel Lotto Michelton Movistar NTT Ineos Jumbo Sunweb Trek UAE
Like 135 364 517 231 101 304 925 279 383 118
Meh 740 764 626 646 931 414 282 805 765 734
Dislike 302 40 52 326 121 562 53 97 42 331
Karma -167 324 465 -95 -20 -258 872 182 341 -213
So, the most popular team this year is Jumbo-Visma, followed by Quick-Step & Bora-hansgrohe. Least popular are Ineos & UAE.
As per usual, no one cares about NTT & CCC, with nearly 81% of users rating NTT as meh. Pretty damning stuff.
Lastly, we have the usual historical comparison of how teams have fared over time, normalised to respondents to that question on the survey.
Things to note then, firstly that the Astana redemption arc is over, seeing them back in the negative, maybe Fulgsangs spring issues helped aid that? The petrodollar teams of UAE & Bahrain are stubbornly negative too, with Israel keeping up the Katusha negative streak. Meanwhile, at the top end, EF & Jumbo go from strength to strength, whilst some others like Sunweb are sliding over time - their transfer policies no doubt helping that.

10. Do you ride a bike regularly?

Answer 2018Mar 2018Aug 2019 2020
For fun 61.5% 63.4% 59.9% 62.9%
For fitness 59.3% 59.6% 54.8% 59.8%
For commuting 46% 46% 45.6% 40%
For racing 20.6% 20.6% 15.9% 17.7%
No, I don't 14.2% 12.9% 14.8% 13.6%
Still a fairly small group of racers out of all of us

11. Out of the sports you practice, is cycling your favourite?

Yes No
58,29% 41,71%
A new addition to the survey prompted by a good point last time, just over half of us rate cycling as the favourite sport we actually do.

12. What other sports do you follow?

Sport #
Association Football / Soccer 50.78%
Formula 1 35.81%
American Football 26.27%
Basketball 22.46%
Track & Field 17.58%
Esports (yes, this includes DotA) 17.30%
Rugby 14.27%
Skiing 14.12%
Ice Hockey 13.63%
Baseball 12.15%
Motorsports (Not including F1) 10.59%
Cricket 10.52%
Tennis 9.53%
Chess 8.97%
Triathlon 8.69%
Biathlon 8.12%
Snooker 7.06%
Golf 6.92%
Swimming 6.85%
Ski Jumping 6.78%
Climbing 5.72%
Martial Arts 5.65%
Handball 5.44%
Darts 5.01%
Speed Skating 5.01%
Football always tops the charts, and Formula 1 continues to rank extremely highly among our userbase. Those who have a little following below 5% include Sailing, Fencing, Surfing, Boxing & Ultra-Running.
Other cycling disciplines
Sport #
Cyclocross 22.10%
Track Cycling 14.34%
MTB 8.97%
BMX 1.20%

13. Out of the sports you follow, is cycling your favourite sport?

Yes No
61.79% 38,21%
Good. Makes sense if you hang out here.

Subreddit stats

14. How often do you participate in a /Peloton Race Thread whilst watching a race?

2015 2016 2018Mar 2018Aug 2019 2020
I always participate in Race Threads during races 2.8% 2% 2.2% 4% 2.5% 3%
I follow Race Threads during races 41.7% 36.7% 38.1% 42.1% 42.5% 38.9%
I often participate in Race Threads during races 16.8% 19% 16.5% 18.9% 15.2% 13%
I rarely/never participate in Race Threads during races 38.7% 41.3% 43.1% 35% 39.8% 45.1%
Slightly less invested than before, reverting back to an older trade.

15. How do you watch Races?

Method 2018Mar 2018Aug 2019 2020
Pirate Streams 62% 46.5% 50.2% 47.9%
Free Local TV 55.7% 64.5% 59.6% 53.9%
Desperately scrabbling for Youtube highlights 37.9% 30.2% 28.2% 24.9%
Paid Streaming services 32.3% 35.4% 38.3% 46.3%
Year on year, paid streaming services go up - the increasing availability of live content legally continues to improve, and so do the numbers on the survey.

16. Where else do you follow races live (in addition to watching them)?

Type 2018Mar 2018Aug 2019 2020
/Peloton race threads 86.2% 83.4% 80.2% 76.9%
Twitter 30.5% 34.7% 33.3% 38.3%
PCS Liveticker - - 30.2% 32%
Official tracker (if available) 24%
The Cyclingnews liveticker 26% 23.5% 21.5% 18.9%
Sporza (site/ticker) 1.89% 9.5% 10.8% 10.8%
NOS Liveblog - 6.8% 7% 9.2%
Steephill 0.52% 13.5% 10.2% 8.2%
/Peloton discord 6.5% 5.4% 7.5% 7.2%
Other cycling forums 15.1% 8.1% 7.6% 7%
feltet.dk - 2.2% 5.4% 5.2%
Facebook 3.8% 5.4% 4% 4.2%
BBC Ticker - 3.5% 2.1% 4.1%
DirectVelo - 1.3% 1.6% 1.8%
Non Cycling Forums - 1.3% 1.2% 1.2%
/cyc/ - 1.3% 1% 0.6%
/peloton IRC ~0 0.8% 0.4% 0.5%
The PCS liveticker continues to have a strong following, whilst the cyclingnews ticker slowly slides into less usage over time.

17. Do you use /Peloton mostly in classic reddit or redesign when on the desktop?

Type 2018 Aug 2019 2020
Classic 75.1% 67.2% 46.2%
Redesign 24.9% 32.8% 53.8%
Time to abandon ship. The end has come.

18. With what version of reddit do you browse the sub?

Version 2019 2020
Official App 17.9 31.1
Desktop Classic 37.8 25.8
3rd Party App 18.3 17.2
Mobile Web 12.4 14.7
Desktop Redesign 13.7 11.2
Phone browsing is very much in vogue.

19. How did you find the sub?

How %
Through other forms of reddit, f.e. /bicycling 48.33%
Too long - can't remember 38.65%
Google search 9,11%
My friend told me 2,28%
I wanted to talk about my exercise bike 0.78%
Twitter 0.5%
Lantern Rouge Youtube 0.28%

Other bits and bobs

20. Did you think back in March we would see any more racing this year?

Yes No
52,81% 47,19%
Despite the threat, we have seen racing again

21. Will we manage to fulfill the rest of the UCI calendar without further Covid-19 issues postponing more races?

Yes No
25.3% 74.7%
Sorry to you 25%, Amstel, Roubaix & a bunch of other races have falled foul of COVID-19 related cancellations.

22. When did you become aware of Alexander Foliforov?

When %
Before the 2016 Giro 3,25%
22nd May, 2016 15,55%
On /pelotonmemes in 2020 21,13%
Who? 60,07%
If you didn't know of the man, watching him demolish the Giro field in 2016 on the stage 15 ITT should help to gain understanding

23. Who will win the 2020 Tour de France?

Rider %
Roglic 52,12%
Bernal 16,57%
Pinot 9,24%
Dumoulin 7,9%
N.Quintana 2,82%
Pogacar 1,41%
Richie Porte 0,35%
We can safely say that most of us were wrong about this one.
That's not a lot of confidence in Richie Porte either, the man who was to finish on the third spot of the podium. Alexander Foliforov (0,23%) had just a tiny number of votes less, and that man wasn't even in the race.

24. What for you was the defining cycling moment of the previous decade?

We had a lot of brilliant suggestions, but these were the clear five favourites when we tabulated the results.
Honorable mentions go to the Giro 2018, which had Tom Dumoulin winning, and of almost identical fascination to many of you - Tom Dumoulin going on someones porta-potty in the middle of the stage.
Little bit of recency bias perhaps, but that's better than ignoring that this was for the last decade and firmly insisting Tom Boonens 2005 WC win was the biggest thing. Special shoutout to almost all the Danes present in /peloton who voted for Mads Pedersens WC win last year. It's an understandable reaction.

25. Any suggestions for the Survey?

New Questions
We promise to feature one of these suggestions in the next survey
Suggestions
We will try to implement this. But it will also skew results.
About the Survey
The subscribers are torn on Women's cycling, nearly a 50/50 split there as the survey showed - The moderators at /peloton are firmly in the "more cycling is better" basket, and we will continue to get as good coverage of womens cycling as possible.
Are you trying to give the moderators PTSD? Because this is how you give the moderators PTSD.

26. Any suggestions for the sub?

ALSJFLKAJSLDKJAØLSJKD:M:CSAM)=#/()=#=/")¤=/)! - Your moderator seems to be out of function. Please stand by while we find you a new moderator
The Weekly threads are great for these types of questions, where several people can contribute and build up once it is understood which information is relevant.
Our experience is that "limited" will never be so, if we're going to moderate it fairly. Moderating is not a popularity contest, but believe it or not, we're actually trying to be as fair as possible. and for that, we need rules that are not subjective. Unless you have a stationary exercise bike.
All of these are good suggestions, but remember that all of you can also contribute - The mods are sometimes stretched thin, specially in the middle of hectic race schedules. It's easier if one of you has a way to contact a rider or a person of interest and can facilitate the initial communication.
We've worked on this! The Official Standard is now as follows: [Race Thread] 202x Race Name – Stage X (Class)
This sounds as a nice community project for the after-season, and hopefully many of you subscribers can contribute.
Come with suggestions on how to tidy it up!
We have chastised all the mods. They are now perfectly trained in gender-neutral pronouns. Be well, fellow being.
If we can implement this for hard liquor, you know we will.
The spoiler rule is one that is discussed frequently - in general - some users absolutely hate it, but a majority love it. Perhaps we'll include a question in the next survey to see how this divide is exactly.
We actually do - whenever there is a matter of life or death, we think public information is more important than a spoiler rule. But at the same time, we try to collect all the different posts into one main thread, so to keep things focused and letting very speculative posts meet with hard evidence from other sources.
This is a tough ask of the internet. While we can agree that voting should be done accordingly to what insights they bring, not subjective opinions, it is very hard to turn that type of thinking around. We can ask of you, our subscribers, that you please think twice about hitting that downvote button, and only do so because of you think a post is factually incorrect, not because it differs with your own subjective opinion.
That's the primary analysis of the survey! Feel free to contribute with how you experience things here!
submitted by PelotonMod to peloton [link] [comments]

College apps suck, good luck to anyone currently applying!

Hey all! I know this time of year is really tough for anyone applying to college. Stick in there!
Demographics
Intended Major(s): Classics
Academics
Standardized Testing
Extracurriculars/Activities
  1. Local chapter of Junior Classical League (4 years), President
  2. Orchestra (4 years), Concertmaster
  3. Debate (4 years), Team Captain, won state in my senior year
  4. Teaching Assistant at Chinese camp (4 years)
  5. Science Olympiad (4 years), Team Captain
  6. Pit Orchestra (3 years)
  7. Congressional Debate (2 years)
  8. Quiz Bowl (4 years)
  9. Environmental Club (3 years)
  10. Private Violin Tutor (1 year)
Awards/Honors
  1. Questbridge National College Match Scholarship Finalist
  2. National Merit Scholar
  3. National Speech and Debate Association Superior Distinction
Letters of Recommendation
I had really good relationships with both of my recommenders. One was my Latin teacher who I had been taking classes from all 4 years, and was the mentor to JCL, an activity that I was really involved in. The other was my APUSH teacher who coached Quiz Bowl, which I was involved in for all four years of high school. I also chatted with both teachers pretty regularly about non-class stuff.
In the end, both of their recommendations were... just fine. Not bad by any means, but nothing about them stands out, they were just generic. (I was able to see them bc I had to request pdf versions from the teachers for a scholarship later.)
Interviews
My Yale interview was amazing, it was a phone interview with an AO that wasn't in charge of my area. It was meant to be ~30 minutes but we talked for over an hour, and it was a really fun conversation! Since I applied REA, it was my first college interview experience and I was so relieved that it felt like a natural conversation. We talked about history and classics (my intended major at the time) and random small historical things that I was passionate about.
My other interviews... not so great. I had interviews for Harvard and Princeton, and they were both just with unenthused alumni that lived in my area. The interviewers just asked me questions about test scores and extracurriculars that would've already been covered by my application. Harvard interviewer did let me know that the interview is one of the least-considered parts of your application.
Essays
My personal statement was a mediocre child-of-immigrants essay. There is truly so little to say about it. I think my supplementals and short answers were much better written, and I really liked my optional essay for Harvard, which was about mythology and gender, how I related old myths to problems in my personal life.
Decisions (indicate ED/EA/REA/SCEA/RD)
Acceptances:
Waitlists/Rejections: N/A
*I applied to only top schools in RD bc I had already gotten into Yale REA and got good fin aid from them, so I didn't end up applying to any more targets or safeties.
Additional Information:
Feel free to comment or pm me with any questions! I remember how stressful and soul-sucking this process is and would love to be of help!
Edit: I'm already a year into college (not a prefrosh) so feel free to ask me questions about Yale student life too! I'm pretty involved in activist and queer circles :)
submitted by plain_tomato to collegeresults [link] [comments]

Advekit.com review - finding therapists by specialty (ADHD!) + insurance type / therapy style

tl;dr potential holy grail for US folk in certain states: Advekit is a website that matches you+therapists by specialty area (e.g. ADHD!) + insurance/therapy style. Also shows upfront costs - what you'd actually pay after insurance.
Disclaimer: I'm not affiliated with it in any way other than hope + curiosity. I am not a therapist or credentialed mental health provider. Cross-posting to a few mental health subs.
Has anyone used it and would be able to share their experiences?
Anyone now inspired to use it who can report back to the sub with your thoughts?
----
I keep seeing ads for Advekit. It looks like a rad tool if you're in the US (currently only 7 states) and trying to find a therapist that checks all the boxes (ADHD, in-network or affordable, therapy style, particular gender, in-person or online-only, etc etc).
Finding a care team (therapist, psychiatrist, other) who truly understands ADHD SHOULD NOT BE A CRAPSHOOT. It should not be so freaking convoluted, demoralizing and painful. I wonder if Advekit is the holy grail, or at least the mental health equivalent of a power tool when your toolbox used to be one shitty too-small Philips-head screwdriver.
I noodled around with it since I'm trying to help a coaching client in distress whose current therapist can't help in a particular specialty area.
Stop here if you don't need/want to nerd out further.

===== OVERVIEW OF THE MATCHING QUESTIONS =====
They don't have a detailed summary of the questions they ask unless you fill out the questionnaire, so I did it for you. (I can't stand having to surrender my personal info and fill out pages of questions only to find out they're not asking the right questions and wondering if it's useful at all).
I was really interested to see this question on what's your ideal therapist's role during the session. I've seen this make or break a therapy relationship AND make/break a person's views on therapy - if you need more tactical skills, you don't want the therapist to just sit back and let you talk, and if you're in need of validation you really really don't want a therapist with a firm hand.
The full questionnaire if you pick INDIVIDUAL at first. Idk what would change for couples/child/etc.
===== further thoughts from a product manager perspective =====
My experience with "find a provider by specialty" tools (e.g. PsychologyToday or health insurance) as a patient and client advocate is that providers self-report their specialty areas and there's no way to verify whether they're a generalist who pays lip service to ("I've learned about ADHD so I can treat patients with it, no problem") or has deep experience and specific expertise in recognizing + treating the many ways it presents. Therapists are humans, and therefore both fallible AND biased. Evidence: so many heartbreaking tales of "you obviously don't have ADHD because you don't fit the stereotype" directly stated by mental health providers.
I also don't know whether Advekit's therapist specialty area questions are more nuanced (rate your expertise in this area from 1-5) or simply binary yes/no. More granularity would help offset the inaccuracy+bias of self-reporting.
Most of the time, patient/client feedback on providers is limited, for many valid reasons (confidentiality, stigma, trustworthiness of review hosting sites (Yelp has a reputation for not removing flagged reviews unless businesses pay for that service), inherent polarization of reviews). So there's not often a way to verify the level of expertise a provider claims to have regarding specialty areas.
The advantage of a tool like Advekit is that there's a way to ground-truth a therapist's self-reported specialty: since billing is done through Advekit there's continued contact with the patient/client (i.e. not only at the therapist-matching stage) . I have no idea whether they do this or not. If I were PM, that's what I'd be thinking about as a way to not only improve the algorithm but also make happier experiences for the humans involved! (better matches mean longer relationships i.e. less churn, more consistent income stream for therapist, higher therapeutic effectiveness, HEALTHIER HAPPIER CLIENTS, the list goes on).
I'm curious whether therapist-selected client gender preferences might lead to false negative matches e.g. "prefer not to say" is incompatible with "female + male". It's worth noting that the matching algorithm may exclude matches that are otherwise appropriate.
Selecting remote-only therapy seems to prioritize Zip code proximity, which doesn't necessarily equate to the best match within your State (providers need to be licensed in the same State as their patients reside).
Currently in 7 states (CA, CT, IL, NJ, NY, PA, WA) but there's no waitlist or "keep me posted when you expand to a new state" button. That would be a nice improvement.

DM me if you have suggestions for other things you'd like to see reviews of from a similar perspective.
submitted by Dora247 to adhdwomen [link] [comments]

Options and Actions

When you start a skill you will have no understanding of the concepts discussed by those who are good at the skill. You will also quickly discover that any skill you are trying to pick up is far more complicated than you expected. And since translation is difficult across modules you will experience this frustration every single time you learn a new skill, even if you possess an understanding of the concepts in another skill.
In order to properly understand this you want to look at options and open to a person to alter the performance of the skill, and try to understand how people might alter their actions to experiment with these options.
Let us take tennis a tennis serve as an example.
What options are there?
Well you can't hit a serve without the racket hitting the ball with the face. You can hit it with the side of the racket or the handle but it isn't optimal. So in this case you will note a fixed rule for a serve (to hit with the face). Now in order to hit a ball with the face of the racket you have options.
1) Stance (body rotation)
2) Alignment (hip position)
3) Turning (shoulder position)
4) Extension (of the arm)
5) Rotation (of the elbow)
6) Twist (of the wrist)
7) Grip (of the fingers)
With this we already have a lot of sub options for how to hit the ball.
Stance:
- Backwards
- Forwards
- Compensatory angle (for other rotations)
- Fixed angle (set as a standard)
- Moving
- Run up or stationary
You could theoretically attempt to serve the ball like one throws a javelin with a run up, or with a spin like a shotput or hammer throw. You could move laterally across court, you could move forwards to the net (or backwards), or you could move vertically (or duck).
You could do all of this backwards, while ducking, in the air, starting at a fixed angle, compensating for other motions, or you could do it forwards. So how then do you pick the optimum stance?
This is part of how you turn initial options into LOAD. You will note the complicated logistics of each alteration on each other part of the body. But let us not stop here. First let us assume we will find the optimum at some point and not worry too much.
The options of a skill are designated by the limits of what you are using NOT what is optimal to use. They are simply OPTIONS, and they can be investigated, but most of the time people will start somewhere seemingly obvious and slowly expand their awareness of options from there, never truly understanding every option possible.
Skill is NOT the optimisation of all possible OPTIONS, but it is possible to locate a near optimal set of options via extensive analysis. Maximising for the potential applications of each and triangulating which options have probable use and which don't, eventually getting a dominant set of options.
What we do when we gain a skill is first assume what these dominant options are. These dominant options serve as one of the first ways we bear the load of a skill. By isolating the option base down to a simpler set of options we can then investigate more of the sub-options and combinations between options. (this is not the first thing we do to gain skill however, note that motivation to pursue the skill is first, or you will not investigate options with any consistency or determination)
Finding the dominant options sets up a theme for the skill that it will always follow.
ACTIONS are then the choices made to alter the assumption of what option or combination of options occupy priority. This goes many layers deep and crosses from subtle to the obvious. So a finger motion, or grip change may alter the stance angle, which may in turn impact alignment of the hips and the extension of the arm, then rotational timing. These actions are like shots in the dark, because they can no longer be isolated into exact combinations of options. They are attempting to use options with flexibility and are elastic.
In a sense, the action causes the loss of the ROOT cause of a result. And suggests shoots or branches that stem from this root, now may no longer rely on the initial root. Much like how a cat in free fall can reorient its body to land on its feet. It is independent movement from the ground (often used as the root). This is the ACTION.
Now that we know what options and actions are, lets move onto understanding how they make skill acquisition different every single time.
Once a person understands enough of the options available to them they set a dominant root of options, and they start to investigate actions that stem from these roots looking for useful branches. They do this in order to get a starting FOUNDATION for the skill. In relatively simple skills this will lead to optimisation quickly, but the more options and actions are complicated and non-obvious, the more a skill needs to "evolve". So for example, chess is more complicated than checkers and went through evolution. It started with tactical ideas, then the romantic era of improved aesthetics, then the era of solidifying play with pawn structures, then modern chess, and finally hyper-modernism, and perhaps now with the advent of AI a post-hyper-modernism..
While with checkers, the rules create a limited set of options, and while these are not immediately obvious to solve for, they do not require evolution to reach the optimum.
All skills therefore have a rate of evolution that sets up the likelihood that it is currently in its optimum state and that the dominant options and actions will change. But it is within human nature to want to upset this paradigm. Wanting to reach the optimum immediately, find short cuts, or to "one up" the competition. This can lead to them reverting to previous evolutions, or simply rediscovering that certain portions were achievable without evolution.
Therefor, all skills operate on a platform of dominant options, and going against this may have benefits in discovering new actions, but only when evolution is still a possibility. The skill must be complex enough, and if it is, actions will become possible. This is also true of technology. If technology or biology changes, it will alter the set of options and actions you have.
Further, if technology or biology is a variable, the potential evolution is higher than if it merely can evolve alone. So chess can evolve further with ai, but also it will evolve further if neural links in the brain to computers allow a bionic improvement in mental analysis functions of the brain.
Extending from this understanding, it is also true that people change biologically as they gain a skill. Their capacity to handle load increases. Either through fitness regimes, or through drills that coordinate the mind. But even further than this physiological changes occur as a person gains skill and this opens up insight and intuition as well as actual physical and mental options that were not available before.
So in order to understand skill we have to separate these ideas into different horizons. The initial horizon can analyse first options and first actions, but once dominant structures are established and actions better understood a certain elastic capability evolves to use these ideas with pattern recognition (pattern analysis rather than direct). After pattern analysis you then have the change of physiology and mental structures, so rhythm in a sports athlete, muscle memory, change in instincts and intuition, which then changes these patterns to suit the new options and actions. And then further horizons once a local maximum is reached but then strategically overcome by other means.
These horizons mean that, some skill knowledge is not accessible until enough iterations create dominant features and changes. As they only appear later. These however ARE NOT improvements in dominant option or action structures. They are just a broadening of specific option and action structures in the local area.
So this is all a big factor in why you can't just translate your better skill in one area into another.
1) the options and actions differ
2) evolution is not always obvious
3) horizons alter the effective reach you have of investigating options and actions
The skill components can only translate when dependent option and action structures are present, and often this required process leaves translation less useful or efficient. However, if biological changes have occurred to your body, or mind, these can be leveraged to accelerate the emergence of these traits in similar skills, but it must be carefully observed, drilled, and nutured, so it can adjust to the new context.
Why?
Load.
Load will push in on ANY new skill being acquired, this is not simple informational load. But translational load from the module. Because every module has a kind of set of patterns that are VERY VERY FRAGILE. If these patterns are disturbed enough, a rejection occurs. Similar to building a house on top of a telephone pole, it will shatter if too top heavy and structures below do not support it. These "sheer forces" of a skill come from the horizon transitions. Probably because action improvements are dependent on previous horizons establishing a stable structure, not just the biological change itself. So you have to account for the "signatures" of the module you are operating in.
(this leads to more complication, because the more you are sensitive to signatures, the more you realise how modules influence each other, which brings in more variables... but for now we will ignore this)
With this understanding we can understand that SIGNATURE ACTIONS AND OPTIONS are the most important to the support of biological changes. And skill acquisition can be accelerated in this manner. NOT through translation of concepts from one skill module to another. The focus is on signatures not transfers.
The option and action of a skill at first should be analysed for the best signature for stability, then the next horizon should be prepared for, and this will introduce new actions and options, and then further development will change body, mind, and skill integration into the biology, which again opens up even more actions and options.

The example here is tennis, but it works with computer programming just as well.
The options of a program resort back to mathematics and these illustrate how binary systems can be used via understandings of lambda. You then have options in the hardware which were picked (having firmware, a bios, etc). The machine code, etc etc. And these lead to actions based off the dominant options pursued.
Now, computing is actually a candidate for complex evolution. So it very likely isn't at its optimum evolution in terms of its dominant structures, but it has signatures that follow into different horizons leading to new technologies and new languages, which then lead to an evolution in computational and language technology.
But, these ideas are present.
Any relatively new skill module, with high variability in its underlying structures, and high complexity, will not find its optimum evolution easily. And it will seem confusing. However, in order to stabilise your understanding of what is going on and why it is important to simplify down first to options and actions, as these are what we usually alter to create highly sophisticated structures that inform us on how we can better do a skill.
It is important not to underestimate the complexity of this in different contexts and this is key in skill acquisition. It is the reason you will not learn a perfect tennis serve via instructions from a good coach from day one. Even if very athletic and even if you know composite actions through other skills that approximate each action. One needs to consider the horizon alterations and account for the signature stability of the new set up of those composites.
If you are learning a skill don't expect direct analysis to be the pathway to its acquisition. But do expect action and option to be what is altered, and that this will expand the skill rather significantly in directions you might not initially have any access to. This inflationary barrier is a real thing, and cannot be cut out of the considerations you make.
submitted by Serpente-Azul to The_2nd_Plane [link] [comments]

Advekit.com review - finding therapists by specialty (ADHD!) + insurance type / therapy style

tl;dr potential holy grail for US folk in certain states: Advekit is a website that matches you+therapists by specialty area (e.g. ADHD!) + insurance/therapy style. Also shows upfront costs - what you'd actually pay after insurance.
Disclaimer: I'm not affiliated with it in any way other than hope + curiosity. I am not a therapist or credentialed mental health provider. Cross-posting to a few mental health subs.
Has anyone used it and would be able to share their experiences?
Anyone now inspired to use it who can report back to the sub with your thoughts?
----
I keep seeing ads for Advekit. It looks like a rad tool if you're in the US (currently only 7 states) and trying to find a therapist that checks all the boxes (ADHD, in-network or affordable, therapy style, particular gender, in-person or online-only, etc etc).
Finding a care team (therapist, psychiatrist, other) who truly understands ADHD SHOULD NOT BE A CRAPSHOOT. It should not be so freaking convoluted, demoralizing and painful. I wonder if Advekit is the holy grail, or at least the mental health equivalent of a power tool when your toolbox used to be one shitty too-small Philips-head screwdriver.
I noodled around with it since I'm trying to help a coaching client in distress whose current therapist can't help in a particular specialty area.
Stop here if you don't need/want to nerd out further.

===== OVERVIEW OF THE MATCHING QUESTIONS =====
They don't have a detailed summary of the questions they ask unless you fill out the questionnaire, so I did it for you. (I can't stand having to surrender my personal info and fill out pages of questions only to find out they're not asking the right questions and wondering if it's useful at all).
I was really interested to see this question on what's your ideal therapist's role during the session. I've seen this make or break a therapy relationship AND make/break a person's views on therapy - if you need more tactical skills, you don't want the therapist to just sit back and let you talk, and if you're in need of validation you really really don't want a therapist with a firm hand.
The full questionnaire if you pick INDIVIDUAL at first. Idk what would change for couples/child/etc.
===== further thoughts from a product manager perspective =====
My experience with "find a provider by specialty" tools (e.g. PsychologyToday or health insurance) as a patient and client advocate is that providers self-report their specialty areas and there's no way to verify whether they're a generalist who pays lip service to ("I've learned about ADHD so I can treat patients with it, no problem") or has deep experience and specific expertise in recognizing + treating the many ways it presents. Therapists are humans, and therefore both fallible AND biased. Evidence: so many heartbreaking tales of "you obviously don't have ADHD because you don't fit the stereotype" directly stated by mental health providers.
I also don't know whether Advekit's therapist specialty area questions are more nuanced (rate your expertise in this area from 1-5) or simply binary yes/no. More granularity would help offset the inaccuracy+bias of self-reporting.
Most of the time, patient/client feedback on providers is limited, for many valid reasons (confidentiality, stigma, trustworthiness of review hosting sites (Yelp has a reputation for not removing flagged reviews unless businesses pay for that service), inherent polarization of reviews). So there's not often a way to verify the level of expertise a provider claims to have regarding specialty areas.
The advantage of a tool like Advekit is that there's a way to ground-truth a therapist's self-reported specialty: since billing is done through Advekit there's continued contact with the patient/client (i.e. not only at the therapist-matching stage) . I have no idea whether they do this or not. If I were PM, that's what I'd be thinking about as a way to not only improve the algorithm but also make happier experiences for the humans involved! (better matches mean longer relationships i.e. less churn, more consistent income stream for therapist, higher therapeutic effectiveness, HEALTHIER HAPPIER CLIENTS, the list goes on).
I'm curious whether therapist-selected client gender preferences might lead to false negative matches e.g. "prefer not to say" is incompatible with "female + male". It's worth noting that the matching algorithm may exclude matches that are otherwise appropriate.
Selecting remote-only therapy seems to prioritize Zip code proximity, which doesn't necessarily equate to the best match within your State (providers need to be licensed in the same State as their patients reside).
Currently in 7 states (CA, CT, IL, NJ, NY, PA, WA) but there's no waitlist or "keep me posted when you expand to a new state" button. That would be a nice improvement.

DM me if you have suggestions for other things you'd like to see reviews of from a similar perspective.
submitted by Dora247 to ADHDers [link] [comments]

Monster Chapter 21

Previous Next
The next morning Mox was in what she referred to as her office but was more of a fully functional light industrial workshop. She chose this building partly because of the great sound deadening and large rooms. She was enjoying a cup of tea and working on a tablet when she got a notification from her bank about a deposit. When she saw the number she had to double check and then check where it came from. It was from her department in the Ministry, same account as her normal pay. She checked the memo, on the job injury compensation. She tried to flutter her flush to 'laugh' but nothing. A a year ago this would have had her so amused she would have already messaged Jorin to share the joke. She was definitely showing him when he woke up so he could have something to put him in a good mood. She had peeked in on him and as rough as the bedding looked she guessed his night had been pretty bad. She had decided to let him sleep and just order some clothes so he didn't have to bother going home before his lunch meeting. It was the least she could do for the brave act he was putting on for her, she did appreciate not seeing him fall to pieces the way he was when she came out of the coma.
This gave her an idea for how to get around the spooks and get to the Last Cup. No one would be surprised about the poor little rich girl going on a poor little rich girl spending spree after having a chunk of change like this dropped in her account. Realestate is where her family had made their money long before post scarcity and she did own a few properties already. Shortly she was looking at listings in Old Town on a great site that had this really nice local business profile section. Damn it, how lucky would it have been for the Last Cup to be on the market. She had pictured it being in some less than ideal neighborhood but it was actually a fairly upscale area. Yes, yes this would do, office space for sale in the building right across the street. Meats and sud for lunch! Buy now or set up viewing, well she couldn't dishonor the Korig name buying sight unseen. She set up viewings for a few properties in different parts of the city, "just looking today thanks' perfect. She signed a year lease on a coach that would be here in plenty of time, closed up the finished work on the tablet and went to make some breakfast with a lot more zip in her step.
***
Both her and Jorin had gotten dressed for their days business a bit early so were enjoying the mid morning air on the balcony. He had only slightly protested her choice of his new clothes with a remark about it definitely being something a retired academic would wear. She thought he looked nice but not over done and was just trying to get a flush out of her. Normally it would have, but she had an internal conflict going, she didn't want to be dead inside and was using sheer will power to offset make them pay.
Then the Universe decided it was bored.
Jorin had been watching the news on his tablet while she watched ships coming and going from the spaceport. The unobstructed view of the ships was another perk of this apartment. Jorin set the tablet down as he jumped up.
"Mox you've got to see this." he said as he rushed inside and waved on the main holoscreen. they both just stood there in shock.
The Stolm home system had experienced an extinction level event with a large asteroid striking their star. The reporter was interviewing some expert about the history of the system. The Stolm home world, Prax, had been plunged into an ice age a few centuries ago by a mega volcano and the survivors had moved to the mirror swarm around the main star, Praxnia Majora, that was already under construction at the time.
Jorin flipped the channels looking for something on the current situation and they watched an asteroid the size of a decent moon smash through the mirror swarm and hit Praxnia Majora so hard that the flare wiped out the entire mirror swarm and almost all of the cylinder stations around it. The estimated death toll was staggering, experts were claiming that on a normal day that they just watched the deaths of 22 billion Stolm, roughly 70% of their population. The reporters were discussing the time it was going to take for them to send aid and the possibility this death toll could rise in that time, even with a hyperspace link it had taken 22 days for the first reports to reach the capital and the nearest navy vessels that could offer any real aid were more than 60 days out.
"Mox this makes no sense, something is off about this."
Mox wished she could laugh like a human. She sat down and waved up the keyboard and went to work. She linked into the main workstation in her office, rewound the broadcast to the footage of the impact and had the computer start estimating the speed of the asteroid and overlaying the data. She then started hunting through the galactic catalog for something matching that rock, when that came up empty she substituted something close.
"Jorin, hey, will you make me a cup of tea please." she needed to get him doing something other than standing over her with his mouth hanging open staring at the holoscreen.
It took awhile for the computer to run the numbers, she had limited it to the local machine because she didn't want anyone seeing her crunch the numbers on this with network resources.
"That can't be right can it?" Jorin said shrinking back in his chair."94% light speed at impact, is that even possible?"
First time since that day Mox had flushed and she was having to do everything in her power not to because all she felt was pure joy. "Not naturally no, you reap what you sow."
Jorin looked at her for a moment, she wasn't sure if he had seen the bit of flush she couldn't help and then asked. "How? What do you mean?"
"Someone strapped FTL drives on that rock and dropped it to sublight outside of the system." She pulled up some data from the processing stream at the bottom. "It's a binary system and the footage is from an observatory in orbit around Praxnia Minor. We could see it long enough to judge decel, yeah it had been FTL 110 million miles out. If we could get footage from that point I'm guessing the engines were dropped after entering real space and were diverted off into the void or jumped back into FTL."
"So many innocent lives... who would... who could even do this?"
"Jorin, we could do this, we don't because of the conventions on ethical war. Weaponizing FTL is a war crime."
She didn't want to tell him.
"The Stolm have a lot of enemies, you know that, well someone had enough of them by the looks of this." She decided she wasn't going to tell him, she had kept this between her, Krelin and the just as dead AI in the pod. If Krelin had told someone in Navy intel well so be it but she wasn't. Make them pay indeed.
He jumped up remembering his lunch plans. "I'm late, I have to go Mox, do you want me to come by later."
She had told him about her good fortune and planned spending spree and he had been pleased she was looking to do something, anything, to go on with life. "Yes that would be nice, I'll message you when I get home. Dinner is on me tonight." Even if she couldn't tell him why she definitely wanted someone to celebrate with.
***
Mox had went and looked at the properties the day before and had lunch at the Last Cup, it was a nice place, definitely the kind of place you expect criminals to hang out but the type of criminals that wore suits and ties and had corner offices. She had gotten lucky and found a parking garage off of the service alley behind the building so using the rear entrance next to the kitchen wasn't even odd. Krelin was a details guy indeed, this was going to be far easier than expected. The garage was to the right so she saw the door she was looking for but didn't walk past it so only dared a glance at the locks. Standard biolocks, all she would have to do is grab the handle and open it. Well if it hadn't been reset, had Krelin planned for it to take this long? She pushed that terror inducing thought down, she didn't need to risk a public records search to guess this was not a rental.
She purchased the office space and had hammered out a deal with the broker to act as her leasing and management agent. She called the coach to come around to pick her up made a big display of checking her schedule on her tablet. When it pulled up she put her bag inside and looked across at the shops on the other side of the street. She waived her tablet across the meter to pay for the curbside parking and walked across to a clothing boutique and spent some time looking through the designer dresses. She bought a few things and walked back to the coach placed them inside, checked the time, yes, she had time for lunch. She walked over to the Last Cup sat in the front window booth and put her coat on the seat across from her where it was visible from outside and ordered. She waited a few moments looking at the other patrons, the guy who followed her in was seated at the bar and couldn't see down the hall past the restrooms to the kitchen. She knew there would be a camera, there are cameras everywhere but she was sure this was off the books which is why they were doing it eyes on. She waved the server over and asked if she would watch over her stuff while she used the restroom. He looked over and Mox was careful to not make eye contact, he saw her stuff in the booth as she walked toward the restroom and stayed in his seat. She made the turn opposite the restrooms and went out past the pick up counter at the kitchen entrance telling the cashier she would be right back she needed to fetch something from her coach. Quick left turn, grab the door handle it opened and she was in. She hurried up the stairs and into the apartment and saw the one bedroom and hurried to it almost at a run. She pulled out the small knife she had brought and flipped the mattress over onto the floor and cut open the spot a repair had been made. The data card was there, she slipped it in a hidden pocket in her boot, put the knife away as she was heading for the door and was back down and walking back into the restaurant in less than 3 minutes. She walked back out into the dining area adjusting her belt, he was still at the bar. She sat back down and enjoyed her meal, and left in plenty of time to make her next appointment. She was also buying a small tenement building near the spaceport.
***
She had left the tablet at home to remove temptation to access the card in the coach which she was sure was bugged. She had told Jorin she needed to get over being alone at night so she would have all the time she needed with whatever was on the card. She put it in the tablet and waited for it to mount and typed in Monster.
Cooperate. Check! Get out. Check! Last Cup. Check! #3. Check! In the mattress. Check! Tablet with no connectivity. Check! Monster. Check! Make them pay... oh yes, yes we are going to make them pay.
The card obviously wasn't all of the data from the AI, it would have taken thousands of these cards. It was everything she needed. A decent amount evidence from the pod, with archive footage of Hannah, she couldn't watch that. A network spyder with thousands of network addresses all over the galaxy for news and conspiracy sites. A message from everyone's favorite fallen hero Major Agnar Krelin. Thousands of files of evidence naming names, a few who had been on the holo praising Krelin's heroism, the coup hadn't failed.
All she had to do was enter the password to activate the spyder and plug this card into any mainlink terminal anywhere and walk away. Oh we are going to make them pay.
The last folder contained a partition menu, the trash for the spooks that would trigger the nuclear option for everything else, the main data and one named I am sorry. She accessed it, a compressed file titled For Mox. She transferred it to the tablet, closed and unmounted the card. Did she really want to talk to the dead? She stared at the file for a long time before unpacking it. The first folder contained bank accounts, spyders that would change her identity, yeah she might have to run now that she knew the coup hadn't failed. The next folder had some pulsar coordinates for off planet locations, safe houses? Ship and captain names and schedules. Yeah he had looked out for her. Next folder was a video message from Krelin, she turned that off before he got past I'm sorry, she was comfortable with her level of hate for the man at the moment. The next folder was a gut punch, it was chat messages between Krelin and... Hannah? How, when? What the frack was this? Seriously what the frack was this? The glitch with her tablet. Well frack managing that hate level. Nope, this she couldn't handle.
I can't do this, I can't. One folder left, frack you Krelin. She opened it and there was some text, 'I know these mean more to you than any of this' and an audio play list of all of Hannah's songs. She pushed play and got up to pace the room as she heard her own voice talking to Hannah a million years ago and as soon as she heard that voice the whole universe collapsed into a singularity in the middle of her being and she fell to the floor.
He had completely destroyed her again and she lay there a broken husk until long after the music stopped.
submitted by Fornicious_Fogbottom to HFY [link] [comments]

Selling your Covered Call - Thoughts on How to Select Your Strike and Expiration

Congratulations! You are a bag holder of company XYZ which was thought to be the best penny stock ever. Instead of feeling sorry, you consider selling covered calls to help reduce your cost basis - and eventually get out of your bags with minimal loss or even a profit!
First - let's review the call option contract. The holder of the call option contract has the right but not the obligation to purchase 100 shares of XYZ at the strike price per share. This contract has an expiration date. We assume American style option contracts which means that the option can be exercised at any point prior to expiration. Thus, there are three parameters to the option contract - the strike price, the expiration date and the premium - which represents the price per share of the contract.
The holder of the call option contract is the person that buys the option. The writer of the contract is the seller. The buyer (or holder) pays the premium. The seller (or writer) collects the premium.
As an XYZ bag holder, the covered call may help. By writing a call contract against your XYZ shares, you can collect premium to reduce your investment cost in XYZ - reducing your average cost per share. For every 100 shares of XYZ, you can write 1 call contract. Notice that that by selling the contract, you do not control if the call is exercised - only the holder of the contract can exercise it.
There are several online descriptions about the covered call strategy. Here is an example that might be useful to review Covered Call Description
The general guidance is to select the call strike at the price in which you would be happy selling your shares. However, the context of most online resources on the covered call strategy assume that you either just purchased the shares at market value or your average cost is below the market price. In the case as a bag holder, your average cost is most likely over - if not significantly over - the current market price. This situation simply means that you have a little work to reduce your average before you are ready to have your bags called away. For example, you would not want to have your strike set at $2.50 when your average is above that value as this would guarantee a net loss. (However, if you are simply trying to rid your bags and your average is slightly above the strike, then you might consider it as the strike price).
One more abstract concept before getting to what you want to know. The following link shows the Profit/Loss Diagram for Covered Call Conceptually, the blue line shows the profit/loss value of your long stock position. The line crosses the x-axis at your average cost, i.e the break-even point for the long stock position. The green/red hockey stick is the profit (green) or loss (red) of the covered call position (100 long stock + 1 short call option). The profit has a maximum value at the strike price. This plateau is due to the fact that you only receive the agreed upon strike price per share when the call option is exercised. Below the strike, the profit decreases along the unit slope line until the value becomes negative. It is a misnomer to say that the covered call is at 'loss' since it is really the long stock that has decreased in value - but it is not loss (yet). Note that the break-even point marked in the plot is simply the reduced averaged cost from the collected premium selling the covered call.
As a bag holder, it will be a two-stage process: (1) reduce the average cost (2) get rid of bags.
Okay let's talk selecting strike and expiration. You must jointly select these two parameters. Far OTM strikes will collect less premium where the premium will increase as you move the strike closer to the share price. Shorter DTE will also collect less premium where the premium will increase as you increase the DTE.
It is easier to describe stage 2 "get rid of bags" first. Let us pretend that our hypothetical bag of 100 XYZ shares cost us $5.15/share. The current XYZ market price is $3/share - our hole is $2.15/share that we need to dig out. Finally, assume the following option chain (all hypothetical):
DTE Strike Premium Intrinsic Value Time Value
20 $2.5 $0.60 $0.50 $0.10
20 $5.0 $0.25 $0 $0.25
20 $7.5 $0.05 $0 $0.05
50 $2.5 $0.80 $0.50 $0.30
50 $5.0 $0.40 $0 $0.40
50 $7.5 $0.20 $0 $0.20
110 $2.5 $0.95 $0.50 $0.45
110 $5.0 $0.50 $0 $0.50
110 $7.5 $0.25 $0 $0.25
Purely made up the numbers, but the table illustrates the notional behavior of an option chain. The option value (premium) is the intrinsic value plus the time value. Only the $2.5 strike has intrinsic value since the share price is $3 (which is greater than $2.5). Notice that intrinsic value cannot be negative. The rest of the premium is the time value of the option which is essentially the monetary bet associated with the probability that the share price will exceed the strike at expiration.
According to the table, we could collect the most premium by selling the 110 DTE $2.5 call for $0.95. However, there is a couple problems with that option contract. We are sitting with bags at $5.15/share and receiving $0.95 will only reduce our average to $4.20/share. On expiration, if still above $2.5, then we are assigned, shares called away and we receive $2.50/share or a loss of $170 - not good.
Well, then how about the $5 strike at 110 DTE for $0.50? This reduces us to $4.65/share which is under the $5 strike so we would make a profit of $35! This is true - however 110 days is a long time to make $35. You might say that is fine you just want to get the bags gone don't care. Well maybe consider a shorter DTE - even the 20 DTE or 50 DTE would collect premium that reduces your average below $5. This would allow you to react to any stock movement that occurs in the near-term.
Consider person A sells the 110 DTE $5 call and person B sells the 50 DTE $5 call. Suppose that the XYZ stock increases to $4.95/share in 50 days then goes to $8 in the next 30 days then drops to $3 after another 30 days. This timeline goes 110 days and person A had to watch the price go up and fall back to the same spot with XYZ stock at $3/share. Granted the premium collected reduced the average but stilling hold the bags. Person B on the other hand has the call expire worthless when XYZ is at $4.95/share. A decision can be made - sell immediately, sell another $5 call or sell a $7.5 call. Suppose the $7.5 call is sold with 30 DTE collecting some premium, then - jackpot - the shares are called away when XYZ is trading at $8/share! Of course, no one can predict the future, but the shorter DTE enables more decision points.
The takeaway for the second step in the 2-stage approach is that you need to select your profit target to help guide your strike selection. In this example, are you happy with the XYZ shares called away at $5/share or do you want $7.5/share? What is your opinion on the stock price trajectory? When do you foresee decision points? This will help determine the strike/expiration that matches your thoughts. Note: studies have shown that actively managing your position results in better performance than simply waiting for expiration, so you can adjust the position if your assessment on the movement is incorrect.
Let's circle back to the first step "reduce the average cost". What if your average cost of your 100 shares of XYZ is $8/share? Clearly, all of the strikes in our example option chain above is "bad" to a certain extent since we would stand to lose a lot of money if the option contract is exercised. However, by describing the second step, we know the objective for this first step is to reduce our average such that we can profit from the strikes. How do we achieve this objective?
It is somewhat the same process as previously described, but you need to do your homework a little more diligently. What is your forecast on the stock movement? Since $7.5 is the closest strike to your average, when do you expect XYZ to rise from $3/share to $7.5/share? Without PR, you might say never. With some PR then maybe 50/50 chance - if so, then what is the outlook for PR? What do you think the chances of going to $5/share where you could collect more premium?
Suppose that a few XYZ bag holders (all with a $8/share cost) discuss there outlook of the XYZ stock price in the next 120 days:
Person 10 days 20 days 30 days 40 days 50 days 100 days 120 days
A $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $4 $4
B $4 $4 $5 $6 $7 $12 $14
C $7 $7 $7 $7 $7 $7 $7
Person A does not seem to think much price movement will occur. This person might sell the $5 call with either 20 DTE or 50 DTE. Then upon expiration, sell another $5 call for another 20-50 DTE. Person A could keep repeating this until the average is reduced enough to move onto step-2. Of course, this approach is risky if the Person A price forecast is incorrect and the stock price goes up - which might result in assignment too soon.
Person B appears to be the most bullish of the group. This person might sell the $5 call with 20 DTE then upon expiration sell the $7.5 call. After expiration, Person B might decide to leave the shares uncovered because her homework says XYZ is going to explode and she wants to capture those gains!
Person C believes that there will be a step increase in 10 days maybe due to major PR event. This person will not have the chance to reduce the average in time to sell quickly, so first he sells a $7.5 call with 20 DTE to chip at the average. At expiration, Person C would continue to sell $7.5 calls until the average at the point where he can move onto the "get rid of bags" step.
In all causes, each person must form an opinion on the XYZ price movement. Of course, the prediction will be wrong at some level (otherwise they wouldn't be bag holders!).
The takeaway for the first step in the 2-stage approach is that you need to do your homework to better forecast the price movement to identify the correct strikes to bring down your average. The quality of the homework and the risk that you are willing to take will dedicate the speed at which you can reduce your average.
Note that if you are unfortunate to have an extremely high average per share, then you might need to consider doing the good old buy-more-shares-to-average-down. This will be the fastest way to reduce your average. If you cannot invest more money, then the approach above will still work, but it will require much more patience. Remember there is no free lunch!
Advanced note: there is another method to reduce your (high) average per share - selling cash secured puts. It is the "put version" of a cover call. Suppose that you sell a XYZ $2.5 put contract for $0.50 with 60 DTE. You collect $50 from the premium of the contract. This money is immediately in your bank and reduces your investment cost. But what did you sell? If XYZ is trading below $2.50, then you will be assigned 100 shares of XYZ at $2.50/share or $250. You own more shares, but at a price which will reduce your average further. Being cash secured, your brokerage will reserve $250 from your account when you sell the contract. In essence, you reduce your buying power by $250 and conditionally purchase the shares - you do not have them until assignment. If XYZ is greater than the strike at expiration, then your broker gives back $250 cash / buying power and you keep the premium.

Early assignment - one concern is the chance of early assignment. The American style option contract allows the holder the opportunity to exercise the contract at any time prior to expiration. Early assignment almost never occurs. There are special cases that typically deal with dividends but most penny stocks are not in the position to hand out dividends. Aside from that, the holder would be throwing away option time value by early exercise. It possibly can handle - probably won't - it actually would be a benefit when selling covered calls as you would receive your profit more quickly!


This post has probably gone too long! I will stop and let's discuss this matter. I will add follow-on material with some of the following topics which factors into this discussion:
Open to other suggestions. I'm sure there are some typos and unclear statements - I will edit as needed!
\I'm not a financial advisor. Simply helping to 'coach' people through the process. You are responsible for your decisions. Do not execute a trade that you do not understand. Ask questions if needed!**
submitted by x05595113 to pennystockoptions [link] [comments]

Kelly the MLM Hun - An Expose

As soon as I saw Kelly’s job description as a “health coach” pop up on the screen, I immediately suspected she was part of a MLM scheme - specifically BeachBody. I was even more sure of it when she talked about her weightloss journey, & then had to go away to a business conference for a few days when the couples returned from Mexico, likely attending one of BeachBody’s Super Weekends. I decided to do some digging & share what I found with this sub.
I turned to Kelly’s Instagram & immediately I got “boss babe” vibes. I looked through her archived stories because “Client Success” caught my eye. While none of the success stories mentioned the MLM outright, I went to the clients’ Instagram pages & they cite the company for their weight-loss success, & one even seems to be a “health coach” for BeachBody herself now.
I then turned to Kelly’s posts. They are all extremely motivating & encouraging her audience to let Kelly help you to live a better life (i.e. start dieting) &/or start your own “business”. She uses about 20 hashtags on average, & they’re your typical MLM hun ones. Her last post with #beachbody was from December 2, 2019. At first I wondered if she left BeachBody, or did she simply limit promoting the company as she knew Love is Blind would soon be released & didn’t want the backlash?
The most compelling piece of MLM evidence lies in Kelly’s Linktree. One of the options you can choose is “Weightloss Kickstart Program”, which takes you directly to the BeachBody website to purchase the 21 Day BeachBody on demand & Shakeology pack ... for ONLY $210 CAD. Ergo, Kelly likely is still profiting off sales through a MLM.
Kelly does have her own “business” (ChaseLife Together LLC - registered as a business in Georgia in 2018), but I can’t find a company website. If you send Kelly your name & email, she states she’ll add you to her private Facebook group. But still suspicious that she is actively selling BeachBody products & services.
Ladies, gentlemen & non-binary friends of the jury ... not only did Kelly break the heart of our sweet angel face Kenny ... but I suspect that she is an active MLM hun. For these reason, I am NOT Team Kelly. I rest my case.
If you need more info on why MLM’s are problematic, I encourage you to checkout antiMLM. If there’s anything I missed, please let me know in the comments!
submitted by heidilamb to LoveIsBlindOnNetflix [link] [comments]

New to This

I’m a mess.
My partner and I have been together a little over 7 years. He (preferred pronoun for now) has always been attracted to femininity in different bodies and being more feminine himself. We had a conversation the very first night we were intimate and we have had open conversation about it since then. I generally have to initiate the conversation, but it’s also generally me that needs reassurance that he still wants me, even if I’m not exactly his ideal.
A few weeks ago, he gave himself a super cute haircut, but kept part of it long. He told me then that he wanted to keep the long part because he is non-binary. I was so happy for him and so glad he told me... I asked him what language he wanted me to use to describe him (I’ve used a gendered pet name) and quickly adapted my language. I wanted to ask him about other outward expression of his true identity, but I wanted him to have control, so I figured he’d come to me if/when he was ready to start fleshing ideas out.
But then yesterday, he told me that he has already made an appointment to start HRT. And that he took the first available appointment. He does not need my permission, but I am hurt that he didn’t have a conversation with me first. I had and have so many questions and concerns and thoughts that I want us to have space and time to feel out before HRT.
He says he doesn’t want to have any surgeries, and wants a more feminine voice and body. I don’t understand why HRT is the first stop and not a voice coach and some other feminization options. He says he won’t change anything about his expression until he can pass for female, and understands that may never happen... He is very giddy/happy about this, and I fear he is being naive about some things that could happen.
The biggest for me is that I desperately want us to have a baby (this has not been a secret) and he’s always said there is no rush but HRT introduces a rush and/or the possibility of freezing sperm but we’re also both in our mid 30s so the fertility gods are not necessarily on our side with a limited supply. When I mentioned it last night, he said he has looked at freezing sperm but when I started talking about fertility testing first so we have our best shot, he shut down.
My next concern is about sex. I am an anomaly about ciswomen in that I can only orgasm through penetration. I know orgasming isn’t the most important part of sex, but it’s pretty far up there. I don’t feel like he’s being completely honest with himself about the possibility that penetrative sex without toys could be off the table. I have never needed to educate myself on the mechanics, so when I asked him last night he was like “yep, I’ll still be able to get erect. Yep, I’ll still be able to ejaculate. It won’t change my sex drive much except that I won’t think about it all the time” but when I was reading (all night), that doesn’t seem to necessarily be the case? And there is no way to predict what the case will be for us. I asked him if he was scared about things changing and he said no.
We’re actors and singers, and have done multiple musicals and plays together in our community. It has been one of our few outlets and safe spaces, but when his voice changes, I don’t think he’ll get cast anymore. He said he is hoping to get cast in some female roles, but... we don’t live in that progressive of an area. And the theatre world is already very hard on women’s body types and sizes, and he is very tall. I also feel like it will affect me deeply, because I can’t see myself signing up for weeks of rehearsals without him. Or even worse, him being jealous of me for having a more traditional feminine body.
I have a gay sibling and my parents did NOT handle it well. I think they will take this even worse. This will end my relationship with my family. I know with 10000% certainty that it will. I don’t want to be self-centered, but this is not just a decision he’s making for himself. He made a decision for me, too, and didn’t talk to me before he made it.
I’m sorry for the word vomit and not sure what I’m looking for.
submitted by MyBurnerPhone13 to mypartneristrans [link] [comments]

The Tier H Tier List

So, I'm sure most of you have heard of the Ultimate Discord Crafting Tier List, a tier list of every single card in the game made by members of this subreddit's Discord server and organized by Justini1212. This tier list sorted the cards in PvZ Heroes by two categories, Playability and Flexibility.
The tier list is pretty nice, and the format is useful for checking whether cards are good or not. However, the tier list is already exactly a year old, and very outdated. Even though there have been no updates to the game, new decks have been discovered, and many cards like Cro-Magnolia and Vegetation Mutation are no longer accurate on the list.
The Tier 1 Tier List (which I actually helped to make) attempted to fix these problems, but at this point, that tier list is also outdated. In addition to this, it does not contain every card (we seem to have somehow missed a few while making the list), and many people felt that a lot of the card ratings were a bit weird, like Savage Spinach being rated at B Playability.
Justini has talked about how he wants to organize a second Discord tier list, but at the moment the channel where things like that are organized currently has a different project going on, and it is likely that it will be a long time before another tier list is even started. So, I decided to make my own tier list to help PvZH players know which cards are good to craft or recycle.
Now, obviously if this tier list was made by only me it would likely be filled with mistakes and my own personal bias, but it was not. I took a lot of the card ratings from the Ultimate Discord Crafting Tier List and the Tier 1 Tier List (mentioned above), and I also took feedback from experienced PvZ Heroes players on the Discord server. I decided to name this list "The Tier H Tier List", replacing the 1 in "The Tier 1 Tier List" with H because H is my favourite letter.
Like the other tier lists mentioned above, this tier list is based on two main criteria:

Category 1: Playability

How good is the card in the decks it fits in?
S: Best of the best. The card should probably get nerfed in the state it's currently in because it's just that good. You're going to play it all the time in the decks where it works.
A: Very strong. Not something you'd see nerfed, but still a very strong card that you want to play every time.
B: Good. A very strong option in the decks, but it can theoretically be gone without for one reason or another.
C: Decent. It can be worth playing, but there are reasons to drop it as well.
D: Bad. It's really not worth playing, though it at least has some merit one way or the other.
F: Terrible. There's absolutely no reason to play this card.

Category 2: Flexibility

How many decks can this fit in?
S: This is a good option in basically any deck of the class. Top tier crafting material.
A: This is a good option in at least 3 different decks.
B: This is a good option in at least 2 different decks.
C: This is a build around card that itself enables a deck, but doesn't really fit into anything else.
D: This is a good option in only one deck.
F: This card just doesn't have a deck where it fits in, either because it's just that outclassed by other cards for the deck it wants to be in, or because it wants to be part of a deck that simply doesn't exist.
Finally, since there are two key factors that these criteria do not cover, there are two extra modifiers that can be added onto each rating:
*: This is a tech card, and can move up or down significantly depending on whether or not you run into what it counters a lot.
#: This is a budget card, and moves up in the respective category if your resources are limited.
The list is sorted by flexibility, then by playability. Cards in the same tier are sorted by the order they appear in the game (so sorted by class, then cost, then name)
Without further ado, here is the tier list: https://1drv.ms/x/s!At0QUD8Co5MTlXqTPyjOmQFBZ4Fq
I put the tier list into an Excel file not only because you can copy-paste the list into your own spreadsheet if you want to sort it differently, but also because this makes it easier to edit. If you think I made an obvious mistake on some of the cards, leave a comment on this post and I might change it. If you still want the list in text form for some reason, here it is:

S Tier Flexibility

Galacta-Cactus - S
Bananasaurus Rex - S
Snapdragon - S
Ketchup Mechanic - S
Area 22 - S
Interstellar Bounty Hunter - S
Space Cowboy - S
Jugger-Nut - A
Blooming Heart - A
Berry Blast - A
Bonk Choy - A
Apple-Saucer - A
Quickdraw Con Man - A
Line Dancing Zombie - A

A Tier Flexibility

Tricarrotops - S
Garlic - A
Red Stinger - A
Black-Eyed Pea - A
Split Pea - A
Rotobaga - A
Astrocado - A
Cyborg Zombie - A
Teleportation Zombie - A
Genetic Experiment - A
Going Viral - A
Surprise Gargantuar - A
Elderberry - B#
Grow-Shroom - B
Moonwalker - B
Disco Dance Floor - B
Imposter - B
Fishy Imp - B

B Tier Flexibility

Corn Dog - A
Spikeweed Sector - A
Gatling Pea - A
Bog of Enlightenment - A
Supernova Gargantuar - A
Cool Bean - B*
Arm Wrestler - B#
Sumo Wrestler - B#
Sweet Pea - B
Lima-Pleurodon - B
Shellery - B
Sportacus - B
Dark Matter Dragonfruit - B
Lil' Buddy - B
Wing-Nut - B
Biodome Botanist - B
Extinction Event - B
Synchronized Swimmer - B
Loudmouth - B
Teleport - B
Wormhole Gatekeeper - B
Disco-Naut - B
Moon Base Z - B
Black Hole - B
Zombology Teacher - B
Zombie King - B
Fire Rooster - B
Pogo Bouncer - B
Poppin' Poppies - C
Lurch for Lunch - C
Regifting Zombie - C

C Tier Flexibility (Enables Decks)

Pecanolith - A
Vegetation Mutation - A
Onion Rings - A
Gadget Scientist - A
Headhunter - A
Headstone Carver - A
Captain Flameface - A
Three-Nut - B
Cro-Magnolia - B
Zombot Drone Engineer - B
Aerobics Instructor - B
Flag Zombie - B
Zombie Coach - B
Toxic Waste Imp - B
Mixed-Up Gravedigger - B
Astro-Shroom - C
Potted Powerhouse - C
Jelly Bean - C
Zookeeper - C
Ancient Vimpire - C
Team Mascot - C
Primeval Yeti - C
Cat Lady - D
Trickster - D
Valkyrie - D
Flamenco Zombie - D
Imp Commander - D

D Tier Flexibility

Haunted Pumpking - A
Plant Food - B#
Monkey Smuggler - B#
Forget-Me-Nuts - B
Shamrocket - B
Imitater - B
Cheese Cutter - B
Hover-Goat 3000 - B
Neutron Imp - B
Imp-Throwing Imp - B
Raiding Raptor - B
Tricorn - C#
Alien Ooze - C#
Chimney Sweep - C#
Hail-a-Copter - C#
Bungee Plumber - C#
Healthy Treat - C#
Rolling Stone - C#
Smoke Bomb - C#
Shroom for Two - C
Wild Berry - C
Veloci-Radish Hunter - C
Zapricot - C
Sonic Bloom - C
Clique Peas - C
Muscle Sprout - C
Apotatosaurus - C
Laser Cattail - C
Rescue Radish - C
Snake Grass - C
Primal Sunflower - C
Twin Sunflower - C
Magnifying Grass - C
Mustache Monument - C
Rocket Science - C
Unlife of the Party - C
Exploding Fruitcake - C
Quasar Wizard - C
Binary Stars - C
Jurassic Fossilhead - C
Cosmic Sports Star - C
Landscaper - C
Zombot Battlecruiser 5000 - C
Ice Pirate - C
Excavator Zombie - C
Trapper Zombie - C
Zombot Plank Walker - C
Wall-Nut - D
Banana Bomb - D
Admiral Navy Bean - D
Bird of Paradise - D
Eyespore - D
Sage Sage - D
Cosmic Flower - D
Goat - D
Fraidy Cat - D
Nibble - D
Zombie Yeti - D
Primordial Cheese Shover - D
Leprechaun Imp - D
Beam Me Up - D
Fun-Dead Raiser - D
Gargantuar Mime - D
Kitchen Sink Zombie - D
Barrel of Deadbeards - D
Meteor Z - D
Sugary Treat - D
Zombie's Best Friend - D
Disco Zombie - D
Planetary Gladiator - D
Knockout - D
All-Star Zombie - D
Intergalactic Warlord - D
Undying Pharaoh - D
Ducky Tube Zombie - D

F Tier Flexibility

Guacodile - B
Blockbuster - C*#
Primal Peashooter - C*#
Plantern - C#
Tough Beets - C#
Fire Peashooter - C#
Mars Flytrap - C#
Hot Date - C
Health-Nut - C
Marine Bean - C
Pear Cub - C
Banana Launcher - C
Turquoise Skull Zombie - C
Cryo-Yeti - C
Sting Bean - D#
Pismashio - D#
Pea-Nut - D#
Pea Pod - D#
Skyshooter - D#
Whipvine - D#
Cattail - D#
Cosmoss - D#
Morning Glory - D#
Bloomerang - D#
Power Flower - D#
Snorkel Zombie - D#
Surfer Zombie - D#
Kite Flyer - D#
Rodeo Gargantuar - D#
Mini-Ninja - D#
Space Pirate - D#
Stealthy Imp - D#
Photosynthesizer - D
Primal Potato Mine - D
Steel Magnolia - D
Cosmic Nut - D
Body-Gourd - D
Puff-Shroom - D
Gloom-Shroom - D
Half Banana - D
Party Thyme - D
Torchwood - D
Flourish - D
Moonbean - D
Typical Beanstalk - D
Banana Split - D
Spyris - D
Vanilla - D
Carrotillery - D
Shrinking Violet - D
Whack-a-Zombie - D
Aloesaurus - D
Cob Cannon - D
Dog Walker - D
Energy Drink Zombie - D
Hunting Grounds - D
Killer Whale - D
Pied Piper - D
Total Eclipse - D
Mondo Bronto - D
Gargantuar-Throwing Gargantuar - D
Interdimensional Zombie - D
Cosmic Scientist - D
Pool Shark - D
Parasol Zombie - D
Grave Robber - D
Trapper Territory - D
Zombot's Wrath - D
Zombie Middle Manager - D
Cone Zone - D
Buried Treasure - D
Graveyard - D
Laser Base Alpha - D
Zombie High Diver - D
Unthawed Viking - D
Poison Mushroom - F#
Poison Ivy - F#
Grape Responsibility - F
Potato Mine - F
Small-Nut - F
Cactus - F
Gardening Gloves - F
Grave Buster - F
Sea-Shroom - F
Water Chestnut - F
Hibernating Beary - F
Primal Wall-Nut - F
Pumpkin Shell - F
Spineapple - F
Force Field - F
Mirror-Nut - F
Prickly Pear - F
Starch-Lord - F
Doom-Shroom - F
Grizzly Pear - F
Smackadamia - F
Gravitree - F
Loco Coco - F
Soul Patch - F
Wall-Nut Bowling - F
Button Mushroom - F
High-Voltage Currant - F
Hot Lava - F
Reincarnation - F
Veloci-Radish Hatchling - F
Buff-Shroom - F
Fireweed - F
Seedling - F
Shelf Mushroom - F
Berry Angry - F
Cosmic Mushroom - F
Invasive Species - F
Mushroom Grotto - F
Mushroom Ringleader - F
Punish-Shroom - F
Strawberrian - F
Molekale - F
Pair of Pears - F
Pair Pearadise - F
Petal-Morphosis - F
Pineclone - F
Sergeant Strongberry - F
Sour Grapes - F
Transfiguration - F
Atomic Bombegranate - F
Bluesberry - F
Electric Blueberry - F
Lava Guava - F
Sizzle - F
Cherry Bomb - F
Dandy Lion King - F
Poison Oak - F
Grapes of Wrath - F
Kernel Corn - F
Banana Peel - F
Peashooter - F
Sweet Potato - F
Umbrella Leaf - F
Cabbage-Pult - F
Coffee Grounds - F
Doubled Mint - F
Lily of the Valley - F
Pea Patch - F
Captain Cucumber - F
Cosmic Pea - F
Fertilize - F
Grape Power - F
Repeater - F
The Podfather - F
Re-Peat Moss - F
Savage Spinach - F
Plucky Clover - F
Pod Fighter - F
The Red Plant-It - F
Bamboozle - F
Super-Phat Beets - F
Espresso Fiesta - F
Iceberg Lettuce - F
Lily Pad - F
Snowdrop - F
Weenie Beanie - F
Cosmic Bean - F
Grave Mistake - F
Lightning Reed - F
Pear Pal - F
Snow Pea - F
Sow Magic Beans - F
Chilly Pepper - F
Go-Nuts - F
Mayflower - F
Planet of the Grapes - F
Spring Bean - F
Bean Counter - F
Leaf Blower - F
Navy Bean - F
Winter Squash - F
Witch Hazel - F
Jolly Holly - F
Jumping Bean - F
Melon-Pult - F
Shooting Starfruit - F
Smoosh-Shroom - F
Threepeater - F
Brainana - F
Sap-Fling - F
Winter Melon - F
The Great Zucchini - F
Bellflower - F
Kernel-Pult - F
Sunflower - F
Fume-Shroom - F
Pepper M.D. - F
Sun-Shroom - F
Water Balloons - F
2nd-Best Taco of All Time - F
Jack O' Lantern - F
Mixed Nuts - F
Solar Winds - F
Sunflower Seed - F
Sunnier-Shroom - F
Venus Flytrap - F
Chomper - F
Heartichoke - F
Lawnmower - F
Metal Petal Sunflower - F
Sun Strike - F
Venus Flytraplanet - F
Briar Rose - F
Squash - F
Laser Bean - F
Smashing Pumpkin - F
Tactical Cuke - F
Three-Headed Chomper - F
Toadstool - F
Astro Vera - F
Cornucopia - F
Secret Agent - F
Skunk Punk - F
Yeti Lunchbox - F
Haunting Ghost - F
Haunting Zombie - F
Squirrel Herder - F
Dolphin Rider - F
Vimpire - F
Vitamin Z - F
B-flat - F
Cosmic Yeti - F
Kangaroo Rider - F
Overstuffed Zombie - F
Sneezing Zombie - F
Locust Swarm - F
Smashing Gargantuar - F
Vengeful Cyborg - F
Deep Sea Gargantuar - F
King of the Grill - F
Maniacal Laugh - F
Nurse Gargantuar - F
Octo Zombie - F
Zombot 1000 - F
Cardboard Robot Zombie - F
Mustache Waxer - F
Paparazzi Zombie - F
Cell Phone Zombie - F
Cryo-Brain - F
Evolutionary Leap - F
Transformation Station - F
Brain Vendor - F
Duckstache - F
Electrician - F
Gentleman Zombie - F
Medulla Nebula - F
Trick-or-Treater - F
Zom-Blob - F
Drum Major - F
Mad Chemist - F
Mountain Climber - F
Thinking Cap - F
Triplication - F
Copter Commando - F
Pirate's Booty - F
Portal Technician - F
Shieldcrusher Viking - F
Wizard Gargantuar - F
Bad Moon Rising - F
Zombot Dinotronic Mechasaur - F
Backup Dancer - F
Loose Cannon - F
Mystery Egg - F
Tennis Champ - F
Conga Zombie - F
Cuckoo Zombie - F
Final Mission - F
Newspaper Zombie - F
Space Ninja - F
Abracadaver - F
Exploding Imp - F
Fireworks Zombie - F
Gizzard Lizard - F
Jester - F
Unexpected Gifts - F
Cakesplosion - F
Cosmic Dancer - F
Orchestra Conductor - F
Stupid Cupid - F
Tanklyosaurus - F
The Chickening - F
Foot Soldier Zombie - F
Frankentuar - F
Gargantuar-Throwing Imp - F
Hippity Hop Gargantuar - F
Imp-Throwing Gargantuar - F
Disco-Tron 3000 - F
Gas Giant - F
Gargantuar's Feast - F
Baseball Zombie - F
Camel Crossing - F
Conehead - F
Escape Through Time - F
Gargologist - F
Leftovers - F
Terrify - F
Turkey Rider - F
Celestial Custodian - F
Lost Colosseum - F
Trash Can Zombie - F
Weed Spray - F
Bonus Track Buckethead - F
Buckethead - F
Medic - F
Stompadon - F
Chum Champion - F
Monster Mash - F
Screen Door Zombie - F
Coffee Zombie - F
Defensive End - F
Ra Zombie - F
Knight of the Living Dead - F
Wannabe Hero - F
Swabbie - F
Imp - F
Zombie Chicken - F
Barrel of Barrels - F
Dr. Spacetime - F
Frosty Mustache - F
Hot Dog Imp - F
Swashbuckler Zombie - F
Backyard Bounce - F
Cosmic Imp - F
Smelly Zombie - F
Barrel Roller Zombie - F
Firefighter - F
Tomb Raiser Zombie - F
Blowgun Imp - F
Walrus Rider - F
Cursed Gargolith - F
Zombot Aerostatic Gondola - F
Zombot Sharktronic Sub - F
Zombot Stomp - F
submitted by kevinlel to PvZHeroes [link] [comments]

Best Google Camera (GCam) and settings for Redmi Note 7, Note 7 Pro, Mi 9T and more - Guide

There are many versions of GCam out there but GCam mod by Parrt043 is the best at the moment.
You don't need to root your device to install this.  
Supported Devices -
This GCam and settings works on all these devices listed below,
• Xiaomi Redmi 4 Prime.
• Xiaomi Redmi Note 4 (X).
• Xiaomi Redmi Note 5 India.
• Xiaomi Redmi Note 5 Pro.
• (Xiaomi) Redmi Note 7 / 7S.
• (Xiaomi) Redmi Note 7 Pro.
• Xiaomi Mi 8 Lite.
• Xiaomi Mi 9 (Only on MIUI 10)
• Xiaomi Mi 9T. (It will aslo support some devices not mentioned here, Just try installing and see if it works for your phone)
 
Link -
GCam Link - Mega Link , Celsoazevedo - Download "PMGC_7.0.009_ConfigsVersion_V3.apk" or the latest version available (see Note at the end) .
 
Configuration -
There are 2 ways we can configure this, Using XML files (Saved Settings) and Manually, XML files are the easiest, has Astrophotography mode and is the best way in my opinion but if you want to tweak your own settings then Manual is the way to go.
Note - Parrot mods say that the GCam works best on custom firmware such as Havoc, Pixel Experience and crDroid although i haven't had any problems with MIUI.
 
1. Loading XML files -
  1. Install the GCam .apk and open it.
  2. Create a folder named "GoogleCamera" in the main folder (Root Folder).
  3. Create a folder named "ConfigsCamera" inside the "GoogleCamera" folder.
  4. Download these XML files (Use chrome to download this)
  5. Copy all three XML files and paste it inside ConfigsCamera folder (GoogleCamera -> ConfigsCamera -> .xml files are here ) See Fig. 0
  6. Open Gcam, double tap on the black part (See Fig. 1) and Select the profile you need and tap restore. (If it restarts then the profile has been successfully opened.)
  7. Make sure that HDR+ is enabled in the Mini settings Fig. 3 and enable Raw if you want it (Raw takes two images, one JPEG and one .DNG which is RAW)
  8. That's it, change the XML profiles Based on your need.
    • AZ-Main-Camera-HDR - Good to take photos from main Camera and overall the best settings.
    • AZ-Tripod-NightSight-Astro - Good for Nightsight and Also includes Astrophotography, to use Astro mode you just use the Night mode but don't move the phone, it will automatically take a 1 minute shot, use tripod for best results.
    • AZ-NightSight-2 - Secondary Nightsight option
 
2. Manual Tweaking -
  1. Install the GCam .apk and open it, go to settings and then to Advanced under photo settings.
  2. Basic Settings (Turn On and Off the following settings) -
    • Show Dirty lens warning - Turn On
    • Save selfie as previewed - Turn On if you want selfie to be as it is shown on screen.
    • HDR+ control - Turn On
    • Hide Icon Movement - Turn Off
    • Use Mode McFly - Turn Off
    • Focus Tracking - Turn Off
    • Enable Google Photos - Turn On
    • Maximum Brightness - Turn On if you want Maximum screen brightness when you are taking a pic.
    • Raw+JPEG - Turn On if you want Raw (Raw is good for lightroom editing)
    • Store Videos Efficiently - Turn On
    • Quick settings - Turn Off
  3. HDR+ Settings -
    • Compress JPG - Set to 100%
    • Quality HDR+ - I set it to 32 (I your device takes too long to take a pic then reduce this a bit)
    • Binary files library - default
    • Pixel AWB Mod - Pixel 4 XL
    • Correction auto exposure - Auto
    • Exposure compensation - set to -0.2 (The photos may be a bit darker if you use this settings but you could always increase the exposure after you take the pic, this is because it is always easier to Increase exposure, Decreasing exposure in an over exposed pic will result in a bad image)
    • Basic settings - Don't change
    • Saturation - Back camera (Set Highlight Saturation to 1.1, Set Shadow Saturation to 1.9), Leave Front camera on default
    • Use DCI-P3 color space - Turn On
  4. Portrait -
    • Advance HDR+ portrait mode - Turn On
    • Disable Zoom - Turn On
    • Save to DCIM/Camera - Turn On if you don't want separate folders for Portraits
  5. Under Experimental settings disable UHD 4K in “Acceleration” mode.
  6. That's all for Photo settings, Now go back to main setting and Set both Video settings to 1080p (If you really want it then use 4k setting but it uses too much space) then set Bitrate to Auto (If you want to set the Bitrate manually then the higher the number, the better the video quality is but it will eat up your storage). You could also stabilize the video in Google photos after you take it.
  7. That's it, Make sure that HDR+ is enabled in the Mini settings Fig. 3 and enable Raw if you want it (Raw takes two images, one JPEG and one .DNG which is RAW)
 
Note-
You are all set now, For you to use the Astrophotography mode your phone shouldn't move, Use a tripod or set your phone against something, Astrophotography pic takes about 1 minute.
This version of GCam is the best for daylight photography but the Astro mode doesn't work on it sometimes, if you don't care about that mode then install this instead. You can share this anywhere, just credit me. I would also like to thank Parrot043 team for constantly improving and modding GCam for Mi phones.
If you have any questions feel free just message me
Edit 1 - The V6 was released today (LINK), you can enable Saber mode in the settings now for Note 7, it won't crash. Saber mode improves the sharpness of the image, it merges several photos to get a single quality photo, kinda like Apple's Deepfusion. Turn it on if you like it. If your device crashes then turn it off.
Edit 2 - No need root for above mentioned devices and newer devices that was released recently.
Edit 3 - If you are having trouble creating the GoogleCamera folder to use XML files then there is another way, Open GCAM -> Go to setting -> Advanced photo settings -> tap on Save XML config -> Type something and save it.... Now the folders would have been created, just find it and paste the XML files inside it.
submitted by CleverD3vil to Xiaomi [link] [comments]

Freestanding in Prague

Freestanding in Prague

The C++ standards committee met in Prague, Czech Republic between Feb 10 and Feb 15. The standard is wording complete, and the only thing between here and getting it published is ISO process. As is typical for me at these meetings, I spent a lot of time doing freestanding things, Library Incubator (LEWGI) things, and minuting along the way (15-ish sessions/papers!).

Freestanding

I had three freestanding papers coming into this meeting:
The first two papers are pieces of my former "P0829: Freestanding Proposal" paper, and had been seen by the Feature Test study group in Belfast. During this meeting, I got to run them by the Library Incubator for some design feedback. The papers were received well, though some potential danger points still exist. Library Evolution can look at the papers as soon as they have time.
P2013 is the first smaller piece taken out of "P1105: Leaving no room for a lower-level language: A C++ Subset". Exceptions are probably the most important thing in P1105, but there's so much activity going on in this area that it is hard for me to make good recommendations. The next highest priority was new and delete, hence P2013 being born. I also felt that P2013 was a good test paper to see if the committee was willing to make any language based change for freestanding.
I had presented P2013 in a prior Low Latency / SG14 telecon, and received unanimous approval (no neutral, no against votes). I was able to present it in the Evolution Incubator, and received no against votes. Then, in a surprisingly quick turnaround, I was able to present to Evolution, and again received no against votes. So now I just need to come up with wording that accomplishes my goals, without breaking constant evaluated new.

Errors and ABI

On Monday, we held a join session between Evolution and Library Evolution to talk about one of the C++ boogeymen, ABI. P1836 and P2028 have good background reading if you are not familiar with the topic. The usual arguments were raised, including that we are losing out on performance by preserving ABI, and that breaking ABI would mean abandoning some software that cannot be rebuilt today. We took some polls, and I fear that each person will interpret the polls differently. The way I interpreted the polls is that we won't do a "big" ABI break anytime soon, but we will be more willing to consider compiler heroics in order to do ABI breaks in the library.
One ABI area that is frequently overlooked is the situation that I am in. I can rebuild all of my source code, but even despite that I still care about ABI because I don't ship all of it together. I build a library with a plugin architecture, and breaking ABI would mean updating all the plugins on customer systems simultaneously... which is no easy task. I also ship binaries on Linux systems. We would prefer to be able to use new C++ features, despite targeting the various "LTS" distributions. ABI stability is a big part of that. I am hoping to make another post to cpp with my thoughts in the next few months, tentatively titled "ABI Breaks: Not just about rebuilding".
On Tuesday, LEWG discussed "P1656: 'Throws: Nothing' should be noexcept". This is a substantial change to the policy laid out in N3279, authored by Alisdair Meredith. That's why it is informally called the "Lakos" rule. We discussed the trade-offs involved, including how adding noexcept can constrain future changes, how noexcept can make precondition tests more difficult, and how this will change little in practice, because implementers already mark most "Throws: Nothing" calls as noexcept. Arguments about performance, code bloat, and standards guaranteed portability won out though. This paper was "only" a policy change, so a follow-on paper will need to be authored by someone in order to actually do the noexcept marking.
Wednesday night we had a social event celebrating the impending C++20 release. The event was held in the Prague Crossroads, built in 927 A.D.. The large tables let us have conversations with people we may not have really bumped into during the rest of the meeting. I started talking exceptions with a few of the other people at the table, and one of the had some particularly in depth knowledge about the topic. As it turns out, I was sitting at the same table as James Renwick of Low-cost Deterministic C++ Exceptions for Embedded Systems fame. I ended up talking his ear off over the course of the night.
Thursday in LEWG, we talked about Niall Douglas's "P1028: SG14 status_code and standard error object". This is the class that may one day be thrown by P0709 "Static" exceptions. Coincidentally, the most contentious parts were issues involving ABI. In several of the virtual interfaces in the standard, we've wanted to add things later, but haven't been able to do so.
Friday, James Renwick was able to present his paper, and the room was very receptive of it. One of my concerns going in to the presentation was that the committee would be unwilling to change anything in the standard related to today's exceptions. After the presentation and discussion, I'm less concerned about that. There was definitely a willingness to make some changes... but one of the big challenges is a question of whether we change default behavior in some cases, or change language ABI, even for C.

Other papers

P1385: "High level" Linear Algebra

This one is the "high level" linear algebra paper. There's a different, "lower level" linear algebra paper (P1673) that covers BLAS use cases. P1385 is intended to be something that can sit on top of P1673, if I understand correctly.
For being a math paper, there was surprisingly little math discussion in Library Incubator. We were generally discussing general interface issues like object ownership, concept requirements, and how to spell various operations, particularly inner product and outer product.

P1935: Physical Units

We are still in the philosophy and goals stage of this paper. We got to discuss the finer points of the distinctions between "kilogram" and "1 kilogram"; the difference between a unit, a dimension, and a quantity; and the difference between systems and models.
This paper is challenging in that there is significant prior art, as well as strong opinions about "the right way" to do things. This gets to one of the trickier parts of standards meetings... driving consensus. The interested parties have been requested to (preferably) work together outside of the three meetings a year, or failing that, to write a paper that gives some outline of what a solution should look like.
This paper also has an absurdly awesome / terrifying metaprogramming trick in it. A base class uses a friend declaration to declare (but not define) a function with an auto return type and no trailing return value. The derived class then declares and defines the function (again via friend) and lets the definition of the function determine the auto return type. This lets the base class use decltype to pull type information out of the derived class without explicitly passing that information down in a template argument (sorcery!). The main caveat with this trick is that it only works with exactly one derived class, as otherwise you end up with multiple conflicting definitions of the same function.

Concurrent Queues, P0260 and P1958

It's amazing what a minor paper reorg will do for productivity. This pair of papers used to be a single paper in the San Diego time frame, and we had a difficult time understanding how the pieces worked together. With the paper split as it is now, we have a small, concrete piece to review, which we were then able to see how it fit in to the interfaces and concepts of the larger paper. We got to dig in to some corner case traps with exception safety, move semantics, and race conditions. There were implementers in the room that could say what their implementation did, and I feel that the room was able to give good feedback to the authors.

P1944: constexpr and

Antony Polukhin is secretly my accidental nemesis (well, not so secret anymore). Over the course of C++20, he sprinkled constexpr on many of the things. As it turns out, there is a large (but not 100%) overlap of constexpr and freestanding. Each thing that went constexpr turned into a merge conflict that I got to resolve in my papers.
And he's still at it!
In this case, 100% of the things that were constexpr'd were also things that I have previously identified as being potentially freestanding. So that's a positive. There were concerns about implementability though, as sometimes, the C library and the C++ library come from different vendors, and having forwarding wrappers is far from trivial.

A minute about minuting

For the wg21 readers out there, if you think you are bad at taking minutes, that just means you need more practice :) . If you find yourself in a room that is about to review a paper that you are not heavily invested in, volunteer to take minutes. That way you can make a valuable contribution, even for an area where you don't have domain expertise.
As a bonus, you get to follow the minuter's code (something I just made up) about spelling other people's names. As the person taking minutes, you have license to change up to three letters in someone's name, so long as it isn't used maliciously. You can freely take any double letter in a name and convert it to a single letter (e.g. Connor -> Conor), turn a single letter to a double letter (David -> Davvid), or completely rearrange any consecutive series of vowels. And people will thank you for it! You are also given free license to interrupt people in order to ask them who they are. Give it a try!

Closing

I've got a bunch of papers to write for the next mailing, and I won't even be in Varna. So if you're interested in championing some freestanding papers, let me know, and I can coach you on the topics.
submitted by ben_craig to cpp [link] [comments]

[OC] Predicting the 2019-20 Coach of the Year

For those interested, this is part of a very long blog post here where I explain my entire thought process and methodology.
This post also contains a series of charts linked to here.

Introduction

Machine Learning models have been used to predict everything in basketball from the All Star Starters to James Harden’s next play. One model that has never been made is a successful Coach of the Year Predictor. The goal of this project is to create such a model.
Of course, creating such a model is challenging because, ultimately, the COY is awarded via voting and inherently adds a human element. As we will discover in this post, accounting for these human elements (e.g. recency bias, weighing storylines, climate around the team) makes it quite challenging. Having said this, I demonstrate how we can gain insight into what voters have valued in the past, allowing us to propose the most likely candidates quite accurately.

Methods

Data Aggregation

First, I created a database of all the coaches referred to in Basketball Reference's coachs index
Coach statistics were acquired from the following template url:
f'https://www.basketball- reference.com/leagues/NBA_{season_end_year}_coaches.html'
Team statistics were acquired from the following template url:
f'https://www.basketball- reference.com/teams/{team_abbreviation}/{season_end_year}.html'
I leveraged the new basketball-reference-scraper Python module to simplify the process.
After some data engineering that I describe completely in the post, I settled on the following features.
Non numerical data Coach Statistics Team Data
COACH SEASONS WITH FRANCHISE SEASON
TEAM SEASONS OVERALL FG
CURRENT SEASON GAMES FGA
CURRENT SEASON WINS FG%
FRANCHISE SEASON GAMES 3P
FRANCHISE SEASON WINS 3PA
CAREER SEASON GAMES 3P%
CAREER SEASON WINS 2P
FRANCHISE PLAYOFF GAMES 2PA
FRANCHISE PLAYOFF WINS 2P%
CAREER PLAYOFF GAMES FT
CAREER PLAYOFF WINS FTA
COY FT%
ORB
DRB
TRB
AST
STL
BLK
TOV
PF
PTS
OPP_G
OPP_FG
OPP_FGA
OPP_FG%
OPP_3P
OPP_3PA
OPP_3P%
OPP_2P
OPP_2PA
OPP_2P%
OPP_FT
OPP_FTA
OPP_FT%
OPP_ORB
OPP_DRB
OPP_TRB
OPP_AST
OPP_STL
OPP_BLK
OPP_TOV
OPP_PF
OPP_PTS
AGE
PW
PL
MOV
SOS
SRS
ORtg
DRtg
NRtg
PACE
FTr
TS%
eFG%
TOV%
ORB%
FT/FGA
OPP_eFG%
OPP_TOV%
DRB%
OPP_FT/FGA
For obtaining a full description of each statistic, please refer to Basketball Reference's glossary.

Data Exploration

First, I computed the correlation between the COY label and all the other features and sorted them. Here are some of the top statistics that correlate with the award along with their Pearson correlation coefficient.
Statistic Pearson coefficient
CURRENT SEASON WINS 0.21764609944203592
SRS 0.20748396385759718
MOV 0.20740447792956693
NRtg 0.20613382194841318
PW 0.20282119218684597
PL -0.19850434198291064
DRtg -0.12967106743277185
ORtg 0.11896730313375109
As expected, the one of the most important features appears to be CURRENT SEASON WINS.
It is interesting the PW and PL correlate so much. This correlation indicates that not only does performance matter, but disparity between expected performance and reality matters significantly as well.
The weight put towards SRS, MOV, and NRtg also provide insight into how the COY is selected. Apparently, not only does it matter whether a team wins or not, but it also matters how they win. For example, the Bucks are typically winning games at an average of ~13 ppg this year, which would heavily favor them.
The high weight toward SRS(defined as a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule) indicates that it is even more important how a team performs against other challenging opponents. For example, no one should and does care about the Bucks crushing the Warriors, but they should care if they beat the Lakers.
Let's explore the CURRENT SEASON WINS statistic a little more using a box plot.
Box Plot
It appears coaches need to win ~50+ games for an 82 game season in order to be eligible. The exception being Mike Dunleavy’s minimum win season, there were only 50 games since it was a lockout season. Hence, that explains the outlier case.
Another interesting data point is the unfortunate coach who won the most games, but did not win the award. This turned out to be Phil Jackson, one year after his 72 win season in 1995-96 appeared to underperform by winning only 69 games. This, once again, indicates that the COY award takes into account historical performance. Who won instead? Pat Riley, with 61 wins.
Here are some histograms of the MOV and SRS where the blue plots indicate COY's and orange plots indicate NON-COY's.
As expected, COY’s are expected to dominate their teams and not just defeat them.

Oversampling

Before we begin, there is one key flaw in our dataset to look into. Namely, the two classes are not balanced at all.
Looking into the counts we have 1686 non-COY's and 43 COY's (as expected). This disparity can lead to a bad model, so how did I fix this?

SMOTE Oversampling

SMOTE (Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique) is a method of oversampling to even the distribution of the two classes. SMOTE takes a random sample from the minority class (COY=1 in our case) and computes it k-nearest neighbors. It chooses one of the neighbors and computes the vector between the sample and the neighbor. Next, it multiplies this vector by a random number between 0 and 1 and adds the vector to the original random sample to obtain a new data point.
See more details here.

Model Selection and Metrics

For this binary classification problem, we'll use 5 different models. Each model had its hyperparameters fine tuned using Grid Search Cross Validation to provide the best metrics. Here are all the models with a short description of each one: * Decision Tree Classifier - with Shannon's entropy as the criterion and a maximum depth of 37. * Random Forest Classifier - using the gini index as the criterion, maximum depth of 35 and maximum number of features of 5. * Logistic Classifier - using the simple ordinary least squares method * Support Vector Machine - with a linear kernel and C=1000 * Neural Network - a simple 6 layer network consisting of 80, 40, 20, 10, 5, 1 nodes, respectively (chosen to correspond with the number of features). I also used early stopping and 20% dropouts on each layer to prevent overfitting.
The metrics that will be used to evaluate our models are: NOTE that: TP=True Positives (Predicted COY and was a COY), TN=True Negatives (Predicted Not COY and was Not COY), FP=False Positives (Predicted COY and was Not COY), FN=False Negatives (Predicted Not COY and was COY)
  • Accuracy - % of correctly categorized instances ; Accuracy = (TP+TN)/(TP+TN+FP+FN)
  • Recall - Ability to categorize (+) class (COY) ; Recall = TP/(TP+FN)
  • Precision - How many of TP were correct ; Precision = TP/(TP+FP)
  • F1 - Balances Precision and Recall ; F1 = 2(Precision * Recall) / (Precision + Recall)

Results

Model Accuracy Recall Precision F1
Decision Tree 0.963 0.977 0.952 0.964
Random Forest 0.985 0.997 0.974 0.986
Logistic 0.920 0.980 0.870 0.922
SVC 0.959 0.991 0.932 0.960
Neural Network 0.898 1.0 0.833 0.909
In terms of all metrics the Random Forest outperforms all. Moreover, the Random Forest boasts an extremely high recall which is our most important metric. When predicting the Coach of the Year, we want to be able to predict the positive class best, which is indicated by a high recall.

Confusion Matrices

Confusion Matrices are another way of visualization our models' performances. Confusion Matrices are nxn matrices where the columns represent the actual class and the rows represent the class predicted by the model.
In the case of a binary classification problem, we obtain a 2x2 matrix with the true positives (bottom right), true negatives (top left), false positive (top right), and false negatives (bottom left).
Here are the confusion matrices for the Decision Tree, Random Forest, Logistic Classifier, SVC, and Neural Network.
Looking at the confusion matrices we can clearly see the disparity between the Random Forest Classifier and other classifiers. Evidently, the Random Forest Classifier is the best option.

Random Forest Evaluation

So what made the Random Forest so good? What features did it use that enabled it to make such accurate predictions?
I charted the feature importances of the Random Forest and plotted them in order here.
Here are some explicit numbers:
Feature % Contribution
CURRENT SEASON WINS 6.569329857214043
SRS 6.368785568654217
PW 6.059094690243399
NRtg 5.5519116066060175
MOV 4.473122672559081
PL 3.643349558354282
... ...
See more in my blog post.
I found it, once again, interesting that SRS such an important feature. It appears that the Random Forest took the correlation predicted earlier into account.
However, we see that other statistics matter significantly too, like CURRENT SEASON WINS, NRtg, and MOV as we predicted.
Something one wouldn’t anticipate is the contribution of factors outside of this season like FRANCHISE and CAREER features. Along these lines, one wouldn’t expect PW or PL to matter too much, but this model indicates that it is one of the most important features.
Let’s also take a look at where the random forest failed. If you recall from the confusion matrix, there was one instance where a COY was classified as NOT COY.
The point is the 1976 COY who was categorized as not COY. This individual was coach Bill Fitch of the 1975-76 Cleveland Cavaliers. He had a modest win record of 49-33 during an overall down year where the top record was the 54-28 Lakers. Looking at the modern era where 60 win records and obscene statistics are put up on a regular basis, I would say that this is not a terrible error on our model's part.
The reason the model may have classified this as a NOT COY instance is due to the fact that the team's statistics aren't all that impressive, but impressive with respect to THAT year. This lack of incorporating other team performances during the year may be the biggest flaw in our model.

Predicting the next Coach of the Year

Unfortunately, we do not have all the statistics for the current year, but we will obtain what we can and modify the data as we did earlier.
Note that all our data is PER GAME, so for all of these statistics, we will just use the PER GAME statistics up to this point (1/21/20)
The only unrealistic statistic is, then, CURRENT SEASON statistics. We will assume CURRENT SEASON GAMES will be 82 for all coaches and obtain CURRENT SEASON WINS from 538's ELO projections on 1/21/20.
Once again, all other stats were acquired via the basketball_reference_scraper Python package.
Team Probability to win COY
MIL 0.49
TOR 0.46
LAC 0.36
BOS 0.31
HOU 0.23
LAL 0.22
DAL 0.22
MIA 0.17
DEN 0.16
IND 0.13
UTA 0.12
PHI 0.12
DET 0.09
NOP 0.07
WAS 0.05
SAS 0.04
ORL 0.04
CHI 0.04
BRK 0.04
POR 0.03
PHO 0.03
OKC 0.03
CHO 0.03
NYK 0.02
SAC 0.01
MIN 0.01
GSW 0.01
ATL 0.01
MEM 0.0
CLE 0.0
This shows the probability of each coach to win COY in the current season. Let's take a look at each of the candidates in order:
1) Milwaukee Bucks & Mike Budenholzer (49%)
Mike Budenholzer was the COY in the 2018-19 season and, objectively, the top candidate for COY this year as well. The Bucks are on a nearly 70-win pace which would automatically elevate him to the top spot.
However, the model is purely objective and fails to incorporate human elements such as the fact that individuals look at the Bucks skeptically as a 'regular season team'. Voters will likely avoid Budenholzer until there is more playoff success.
Moreover, Budenholzer won last year and voters almost never vote for the same candidate twice in a row. In fact, a repeat performance has never occurred in the COY award.
We see here the flaw in the model to not weight the human elements of recency bias against previous COY's and playoff success sufficiently.
2) Toronto Raptors & Nick Nurse (46%)
The Raptors are truly an incredible story this year. No one expected them to be this good. Even the ELO ratings put them at an expected 56 wins this season and be tied for the 3rd best record in the league behind the Lakers and Bucks.
The disparity between what people expected of the Raptors and what has actually transpired (despite injuries to significant players such as Lowry and Siakam) indicates that Nurse would be a viable candidate for COY.
3) Los Angeles Clippers & Doc Rivers (36%)
Despite the model favoring Doc Rivers, I believe it is unlikely that he wins COY due to the current stories circulating around the Clippers.
Everyone came into the season expecting the Clippers to blow everyone out of the water in the playoffs. No one expects the Clippers to exceed expectations during the regular season, especially with their superstars Kawhi Leonard and Paul George being the role models of load management.
4) Boston Celtics & Brad Stevens (31%)
Brad Stevens is another likely candidate for the COY. Not ony are the Celtics objectively impressive, but they also have the narrative on their side. After last year's disappointing performance, people questioned Stevens, but their newfound success without Kyrie Irving has pushed the blame onto Irving over Stevens. Moreover, significant strides have been made by their young players Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum vaulting them into Eastern Conference champion contention.
5) Los Angeles Lakers & Frank Vogel (22%)
Being in tune with the current basketball landscape through podcasts and articles, I can tell that Frank Vogel's campaign for the COY is quite strong. Over and over again we hear praises from players like Anthony Davis and Danny Green on the recent Lowe Post on how happy the Lakers are.
With the gaudy record, spotlight and percolating positive energy around the Lakers, Vogel is a very viable pick for the COY.
6) Dallas Mavericks & Rick Carlisle (22%)
Tied with Vogel is Rick Carlisle and the Dallas Mavericks. The Dallas Mavericks, along with the Raptors, are perhaps the most unexpected successful team this season. Looking at their roster, no one stands out except for Porzingis and Doncic, but they still tout a predicted record of 50-32.
Once again, the disparity between expectations and reality puts Carlisle in high contention of the COY.

Conclusion

Overall, I'm quite pleased with the Random Forest model's metrics. The predictions made by the model for the current 2019-20 appear on point as well. The model appears to favor the disparity between what people expected of teams and their performance on the court quite well. However, the flaw in the model is the lack of weighing recent events properly as we saw with coach Budenholzer.
Once again, predicting the COY is a challenging task and we cannot expect the model to be perfect. Yet, we can gain insight into what voters have valued in the past, allowing us to propose the most likely candidates quite accurately.
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